NEW YORK CITY-Back in January, most in the hospitality industry had an optimistic outlook for the coming year. After all, nothing could really be worse than the pits of 2009. However, as we plough through Q3 of 2012, it seems that those in the know – at least with Marcus & Millichap’s research team – caution that while hotel metrics are up, year-end figures may not be as high as optimistically indicated in Q1.

According to the firm’s recent Hospitality Research: Quarterly Update, occupancy rates are modestly up from this time last year: a mere 1.1% increase. ADR, however, has shown a bit more of a notable gain, up from $101.69 to 2012’s $105.93. As such, room nights will assume a “normal” growth pace, and Marcus & Millichap anticipate that pricing will go up in order in increase revenue.

While the most recent job report wasn’t stellar, the Quarterly Update highlights the fact that certain industries have contributed to a boost in the hospitality sector. The business traveler is returning, which has helped, but also gains in manufacturing, oil and gas, and full-time offi ce-using payrolls assisted in driving demand. States with strong energy sectors, including Texas, North Dakota and Oklahoma, show high room demand, with North Dakota topping the list at approximately 15%.

There might be more bodies in rooms – a good thing – but construction has slowed due to limited access to financing. However, Marcus & Millichap reveals that local banks are starting to lend, particularly where they have established relations with their borrowers. Overall, limitations on financing have hurt independent properties which have been forced to close. It can be safe to assume, then, that brands are a good investment for the time being.

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