(Save the date: RealShare New York comes to the Grand Hyatt, New York, NY, October 9.)
NEW YORK CITY-Home prices have increased across 20 US cities for the fourth consecutive month, a sign that the single-family housing market is raising expectations and continuing its steady comeback. Data from S&P/Case-Shiller in July released this morning shows that average home prices increased by 1.5% for S&P’s 10-city composite and by 1.6% for the 20 city-composite, which is a 6.33% overall jump since March 2012, a company spokesman confirms to GlobeSt.com.
Case-Shiller, which measures the three-month moving average of home prices and is reported on a two-month lag, shows that all 20 major metropolitan cities ranked by S&P posted better annual returns in July as compared to June 2012—an indicator of the returning strength of the market and the upbeat trend sounding residential homes.
“The news on home prices in this report confirm recent good news about housing,” says David Blitzer, managing director and chairman of the index committee at S&P Dow Jones Indices, in today’s report. “Single family housing starts are well ahead of last year’s pace, existing home sales are up, the inventory of homes for sale is down and foreclosure activity is slowing. All in all, we are more optimistic about housing. For the third time in a row, all 20 cities and both composites had monthly gains. Stronger housing numbers are a positive factor for other measures including consumer confidence.”
Among the cities, S&P says Miami and Phoenix are both well off their bottoms with positive monthly gains since the end of 2011. In addition, many of the markets that were the hardest hit when the housing bubble burst in 2006 have seen some decent recovery from their respective lows, such as San Francisco (up 20.4%), Detroit (up 19.7%), Phoenix (up 17%) and Minneapolis (16.5%).
Blitzer writes that the positive news in both the monthly and annual rates of change in home prices over the past few months signals “a possible recovery” in the housing market. The 10-city has increased 7.4% and the 20-city 7.8% since their recent lows.
Today’s indices follows S&P’s US Economic Forecast released Friday that said the housing market, which has been a drag on growth since 2005, may actually help the recovery. The study—released shortly after the Fed promised to keep interest rates low and initiate another round of quantitative easing on Sept. 20—predicts that residential investment will contribute to GDP growth for the first time in seven years.
Kenneth McCarthy, senior economist and senior managing director of research at Cushman & Wakefield , told GlobeSt.com in this morning's cover story that high affordability is helping to drive buyers back to the single-family market, but challenges remain. “I would expect that we would start to see activity pick up, and when that happens, we still have to work through a lot of delinquent mortgages before we really see housing begin to ramp up,” he says. “The thing about housing is that when it does grow it adds a multiplier effect because when people buy a house, they buy appliances, they buy furniture, they buy carpeting, they use financial services, they hook up to utilities and do all kinds of things that have a multiplier effect through the economy. Getting housing going again and seeing housing recover would in fact diminish the possibility of recession. If housing starts to pick up, that will lead to stronger consumer spending in a lot of other areas.”
Other corporations have also voiced their confidence in single-family. Earlier this summer, Goldman Sachs released a report betting on the return of the residential market, and private equity giant the Blackstone Group (BX) recently gave housing its own vote of support, committing up to $125 million with Red Bank, NJ-based homebuilder Hovnanian Enterprises Inc. (HOV) in a land-bank agreement for a portfolio of development parcels for new homes.
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