The Future Is A Week Away

We are about to make what will be one of the most critical decisions for the next decade or more. It is not just the US economy, regulation and other domestic issues, but it is all about how the US leads the world, or not in resolving Iran and the rest of the Mideast. We are faced with the implementation of Obamacare which is a fiscal and healthcare disaster for the middle class. It will lead to delays to see doctors, lesser care, far fewer jobs at the lower end of the income levels, and huge additions to the deficit. Then for all of us it is Dodd Frank which has issues within it that are potentially going to be resolved in a way that will seriously crimp the capital markets and the ability of banks to meet the needs of a growing economy. Next there is a EPA running out of control which will seriously limit the opportunity to rapidly increase oil and gas production thru the implementation of federal fracking rules and more criminal charges if a bird dies as happened in N Dakota. It matters not at all the thousands of birds die in windmills.

There is no question Iran has to be dealt with early in 2013, either thru war or revolution. Syria will also be decided in early 2013. The clear effort by the White House to cover up the terror attack in Libya, and the refusal of the administration to send military assistance to the special operators who were under attack even though they had laser spotted the mortar which then killed them. The future path of the world will be decided in early 2013. Either Israel will attack alone, or with us, but a military attack is highly likely barring a major revolution in Iran which is unlikely. Once that happens oil goes to some very high price, capital markets get disrupted, Europe really tanks, and the US economy steps backward.

China clearly will have to be dealt with in the next year or two. There are major economic and foreign policy issues which will impact the whole world for many years. The tension between China and its neighbors over who owns what resources in the S China Sea and other areas will come to a head.

Europe needs US backing for a resolution to its fiscal mess. While they seem to prefer to find their own answers, the US should be playing a major role which is not now happening. Geithner seems to have been kicked to the curb by the Europeans, instead of a solid role the US should be playing.

Lastly, we need a president who can actually work with all versions of the both parties and find adult solutions. We must have major cuts to spending and major and total tax reform. To do that is going to take someone who can actually hold a adult discussion and negotiation, and not outsource it to Pelosi and Reid. It is highly likely Congress will be split again and only a strong president who knows how to do deals and compromise, instead of trashing the other side in public is going to be crucial. It will also be great to have an administration that actually understands how business and banking really operate, and what motivates entrepreneurs.

Lastly the US needs to once again be a world leader and not leading from behind as has been the case. Terrorists now know they can kill an ambassador and have no immediate consequences. They know for now politics trumps action, and killing Bin Laden is not leadership, it is simply carrying out the obvious after 11 years of incredible effort by the CIA.

I do not mean my weekly blog to be political, but I feel there is so much at stake for the world and our own individual well being, that it is critical to elect anyone but Obama. He never earned a paycheck in the private sector, let alone run a small business. We still don’t even know how he got through college since he refuses even now to release that information. His best buddies were Bill Ayers and Jeremiah Wright. Elizabeth Warren was one of his premier aides. He has lied like Nixon about Benghazi and people died because of bad policy and politics, and he has shown weakness to the world. He issued executive orders improperly and he appointed Cordray in a manner that is pretty clearly unconstitutional. Just imagine what he will do in a second term. While I don’t think Romney is the best possible answer, he is the only alternative we have. I have never in all my years felt the world was so desperately in need of a strong US president and someone who will surround himself with highly competent advisors. To me Obama is an empty suit and the world cannot risk another four years with him as president. This is not about politics. I have on occasion voted Democratic and I am not at all right wing. It is about our future and the future of our children.

Want to continue reading?
Become a Free ALM Digital Reader.

Once you are an ALM Digital Member, you’ll receive:

Breaking commercial real estate news and analysis, on-site and via our newsletters and custom alerts
Educational webcasts, white papers, and ebooks from industry thought leaders
Critical coverage of the property casualty insurance and financial advisory markets on our other ALM sites, PropertyCasualty360 and ThinkAdvisor

NOT FOR REPRINT

Joel Ross began his career in Wall St as an investment banker in 1965, handling corporate advisory matters for a variety of clients. During the seventies he was CEO of North American operations for a UK based conglomerate, and sat on the parent company board. In 1981, he began his own firm handling leveraged buyouts, investment banking and real estate financing. In 1984 Ross began providing investment banking services and arranging financing for real estate transactions with his own firm, Ross Properties, Inc. In 1993 Ross and a partner, Lexington Mortgage, created the first Wall St hotel CMBS program in conjunction with Nomura. They went on to develop a similar CMBS program for another major Wall St investment bank and for five leading hotel companies. Lexington, in partnership with Mr. Ross established a hotel mortgage bank table funded by an investment bank, and making all CMBS hotel loans on their behalf. In 1999 he formed Citadel Realty Advisors as a successor to Ross Properties Corp., focusing on real estate investment banking in the US, UK and Paris. He has closed over $3.0 billion of financings for office, hotel, retail, land and multifamily projects. Ross is also a founder of Market Street Investors, a brownfield land development company, and has been involved in the acquisition of notes on defaulted loans and various REO assets in conjunction with several major investors. Ross was an adjunct professor in the graduate program at the NYU Hotel School. He is a member of Urban Land Institute and was a member of the leadership of his ULI council. In 1999, he conceived and co-authored with PricewaterhouseCoopers, the Hotel Mortgage Performance Report, a major study of hotel mortgage default rates.