ATHENS—Two of the world's oldest trading markets, Athens and Cairo, have seen better days. Greece cut thousands of jobs in February to help gain billions of dollars in bailout from euro zone partners, and Egypt has struggled to recover from the revolution-spurred removal of president Hosni Mubarak. Commercial real estate in the two countries is locked in recovery mode.
Greece has made the biggest headlines recently, as the country has taken billions in bailout money from European finance ministers and the International Monetary Fund. The country's troubles led the debt crisis problems in the second half of 2011. Now, it seems like the country's leaders have showed that the government is ready to initiate austerity measures, though residents launched riots in protest.
Recently, L.P. Ellinas Real Estate Consultants & Valuers, based here, joined the TCN Worldwide organization. General manager Evi Chaviara says she believes Greece's original entrance into the European Community was one of the catalysts for her country's current crisis.
"Ever since, Greece has experienced consumption-led growth, which was fueled by the ability of the country to borrow at preferential rates under the shield of the common currency," she says. With growth financed through leverage, "no structural changes took place and, as a result, the system was leaking from multiple fronts."
Real estate was among the sectors driving growth during the last decade in Greece. In the past two years, only a limited number of transactions have taken place due to the evident lack of liquidity and a lagging price correction caused by contractors.
However, Chaviara says the country can come back, in part because of its tourism draw. "If Greece manages to implement the structural reforms and adopt growth-led initiatives, then it will rise from its ashes stronger, healthier and a valuable member of the European family," she says.
Cairo has about 7.5 million square feet of class A office stock, but vacancy is currently at 35% and growing, and rents have declined 20% since 2010. There's about 8.5 million square feet of retail, and a number of projects that could double the stock by 2014, but rents and occupancy have declined by up to 30%.
Ayman Sami, head of Jones Lang LaSalle's Egypt office in Cairo, says that the city, the largest populated in Africa, will always be a draw for investors, but challenges need to be addressed. "It's still too early to judge the jobs or fundamentals improvement in the market," he says. "However, the country has pulled out from negative real GDP growth during part of 2011 to a positive 1.9%, and we're expecting real GDP growth to maintain similar levels this year or show a slight improvement.
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