You're falling, maybe from a tall building, like in the intro to Mad Men. Panic seizes you because the term paper you know you finished in college doesn't get done, keeping you from graduating. Someone's chasing you through a maze, getting closer, and it's impossible to shake the pursuer. But then you wake up relieved, realizing it was just a dream.
Most of us have nightmares from time to time. Unfortunately, for those who handle the purse strings of commercial real estate firms, sleep disturbances aren't as abstract. And since the financial meltdown of 2008, many of those bad dreams are becoming reality.
GlobeSt.com recently conducted a survey to find what keeps commercial real estate finance executives up at night. The nearly 300 respondents were asked to choose their top three fears from a list of several potential calamities. Three of these scenarios were overwhelmingly at the tops of executives' minds.
The winner, gathering 23% of the votes, was a stalled US recovery. Followed by the upcoming election, at 14%, and consumer confidence, with 13% of the votes. The European economic crisis, public and private debt levels, and rising interest rates followed the top three. (See the full survey at http://www.globest.com/papers/financial-worries-survey-2012-325704.html.)
When taking the survey, respondents were able to leave comments about why particular topics concerned them. Few of the anonymously given remarks, similar to the heated comments one sees on an online news story, held much back.
"We need to get back to sound fiscal policy in both private and public sectors. Stop the greed-induced madness!!!!" That was one of the written comments on fears of a stalled economy. Other colorful comments included: "Real estate suffers with a stalled economy. Banks won't lend. Developers can't develop." "No or slow growth doesn't bode well for corporate expansions." "We need to move forward, not backward or stagnate. Too many people are out of work and a bad economy affects everyone."
When fears about the election were brought up, one thing was clear. Most of those taking the survey were not fans of President Obama or the prospects of him getting re-elected. "An Obama re-election is a disaster for jobs and the economy." "I'm deeply concerned about the prospects of Obama winning another term. It's bad for business and the economy as a whole." "Obama must go to begin real recovery and restore confidence."
Consumer confidence remarks were more tempered but still stressed serious concerns. "Underwater home owners can't purchase goods." "Public perception of the market impacts spending. People spend less when they don't know what the future holds." "Real estate investments are sluggish with zero consumer confidence." "If people are not spending, we go from a recession to a depression."
REAL ESTATE FORUM spoke with a sample of real estate professionals to get their takes on the results. Fears voiced in the survey were both reinforced and dismissed. Additional concerns about hurdles facing the commercial real estate industry were also brought up, and some thought that all of the issues are intertwined.
Heidi Learner agrees with the biggest concern voiced by survey respondents—a continued lag in the economy would be the most damaging thing to commercial real estate. The research director at Studley tells Forum that the expiration of President George W. Bush's tax cuts at the end of the year, coupled with the Budget Control Act to take place Jan. 2 that will cut defense and discretionary domestic spending, could spell disaster "against a backdrop of already sluggish growth and elevated unemployment."
"The marginal demand for commercial real estate base is always going to come from business expansion, whether it's increased hiring or the formation of new business," says Learner. "Weak consumer demand is only going to discourage hiring. That's going to lead to a cycle of depressed income growth and continued lackluster demand. That's not the environment that's hospitable for business expansion."
The hiring of new employees could get hit hard, like we've already seen in the financial world, and that could bleed into other industries as well, impacting office vacancy rates. The retail sector could also get hit if consumer spending declines as a result, and industrial could suffer because of a dip in export growth.
Learner also worries about the jump in the debt-to-GDP ratio, which has increased from 35% to 70% in the past five years, she says. Cutting spending and raising taxes would help the debt situation, but, as stated before, would hinder growth.
A possible solution could come during Congress' post-election lame-duck session. "We might have some type of stop-gap measure where Congress extends the current policies for another three to six months to allow the new Administration and Congress to deal with the problem," she predicts.
Policies set in place by the current Administration have only exacerbated the problem so far, contends Lawrence Longua, a clinical professor at the New York University Schack School of Real Estate. "We've created artificial props in the housing industry which have extended the housing crisis," he says, stressing that the Obama era is harmful to commercial real estate. "We ought to let the market do its magic."
At the top of Longua's mind are the commercial real estate loans maturing over the next few years. Research firm Trepp forecasts $1.73 trillion in maturities due between this year and 2016. Longua's stance is that these loans are not going to be able to get refinanced. "Whether these loans are on the books of banks or in securitizations, the maturities are just continuing and get pushed out into the future," he contends. "That's not a solution. The debt isn't going to go away. It's going to have to be dealt with. Maybe what will happen, and what happens when there's debt that is in excess of the value of the collateral is the debt becomes converted to equity. A word for that is 'foreclosure.'"
Even though we have seen an uptick in the CMBS market and record commercial real estate lending by life insurance companies lately, those factors won't be enough to combat the tidal wave of maturities about to pounce on the industry.
Longua says we need a plan similar to the Economic Recovery Tax Act of 1981 that was enacted during the Reagan Administration. A plan like that, which would significantly reduce taxes would "cause pain," he admits, but it would be beneficial in the long term. Our current policies falsely "make it look like we are involved in a soft landing or a recovery," because the Administration does not want to inflict pain.
"If we continue the policies that are in place right now we are kidding ourselves," Longua insists. "We are going to continue to grow the deficit. We are loading up our next generation and the one after that with multiple trillion dollars in debt, and we're doing that to create this false perception that we're solving the problem."
When it comes to political opinions, of course, there are always two sides to a coin. Eric Gural, an executive managing director at Newmark Grubb Knight Frank represents the opposite viewpoint.
"On the political side, I'm 44 years old, and in my lifetime there's never been a successful Republican administration from start to finish," he says. "Why would I think there is going to be one now? Without Obama, we will be in much worse shape. Obama will handle it similarly to how Clinton handled it, which brought prosperity. It brought prosperity in a way that was sustainable and durable. The idea that Romney would be better for business is potentially correct, except that he's talking about lowering revenues. I've never understood why a business would want to lower revenues."
Gural's take is that there isn't much commercial real estate executives can do about these macro issues, anyway, except work hard to make sure assets are being run properly and try to get the best deals out there. He acknowledges that the political situation is messing with peoples' minds, though. There isn't confidence that whoever wins, both parties will work together. A lot of people are still without jobs. We're still at war. "People are afraid," Gural concedes. "People are uncertain."
What he sees as the biggest micro problem facing in the industry's office sector, especially in New York City, where his firm is based, is an aging building stock that is going to be tough to replace because it's hard to get financing to get new and ambitious projects out of the ground, and the rent that a developer can command won't likely cover costs.
"There aren't a lot of success stories out there," Gural says. "There's no guarantee that building new buildings is going to work. In fact, the odds are against you."
Judging by some of these comments, the industry is potentially in a pretty distressing place. But Aby Rosen, a principal at New York City-based RFR Holding, which owns the Seagram Building and Lever House, and other high-profile hotel and office assets in Manhattan as well as other cities, doesn't seem too worried.
"I sleep very well at night," he tells Forum. "I had some sleeping issues about four years ago. I've stopped having those issues."
Despite the misgivings some had in the survey, the market in New York City is well into a strong resurgence, according to Rosen. He points to available financing, favorable occupancy rates in hotels, caprate compression, class B buildings commanding $700 per square foot and buyers paying all cash for high-end residential assets.
Beyond New York, Rosen sees other markets, such as Miami and Los Angeles bouncing back strongly and is especially bullish about the hospitality sector. "The market is coming back," he says. "The hotel industry is coming back. There are buyers out there."
Rosen doesn't voice the concern about coming commercial mortgage maturities that NYU's Longua stated earlier. Most lenders work with owners to extend securitized debt, he contends, and it is easy to refinance because interest rates are so low right now. "Every property that we had to refinance was refinanced in the last 12 months," Rosen insists.
So is anything freaking this guy out right now? Over-regulating Wall Street, which could lead to more layoffs in an already shaky financial industry, is one of his main concerns. "If you regulate too much, you stifle the economy and entrepreneurship." This is where Rosen and Longua agree, though the latter has some stronger words on the subject. He's especially incensed about the uncertainty surrounding the Dodd-Frank Wall Street Reform and Consumer Protection Act.
"That's a monster that was cooked up in someone's laboratory, and it's just awful," Longua fumes. "You have uncertainty hanging over the capital markets, and that's just terrible. The people who are passing these laws and writing these rules have no idea what the hell they are talking about."
The United States is also now, more than ever, connected to what is happening in the rest of the world. The possibility of a war with Iran and a potential conflict between Syria and Turkey are concerns for Rosen. And of course, there are the financial problems facing Europe. But Rosen even finds a silver lining in that catastrophe, saying that it is making investors want to buy real estate in the US instead of Europe because "our economy is doing so much better."
But it's still not where it was before the recession, which wasn't so long ago that people don't remember when times were good and there were less things to keep them up at night. "It's very fresh in people's minds when things were better," says Newmark's Gural. "It's easy to look back and say, 'We want that again.'"
Stalled US Recovery | 23% |
The Upcoming Election | 14% |
Consumer Confidence | 13% |
European Economic Crisis | 10% |
Public and Private Debt Levels | 9% |
Rising Interest Rates | 8% |
CRE Fundamentals | 8% |
Other (Corporate Cutbacks, Terrorist Attacks, Natural Disasters, FASB Changes and Others) | 15% |
Want to continue reading?
Become a Free ALM Digital Reader.
Once you are an ALM Digital Member, you’ll receive:
- Breaking commercial real estate news and analysis, on-site and via our newsletters and custom alerts
- Educational webcasts, white papers, and ebooks from industry thought leaders
- Critical coverage of the property casualty insurance and financial advisory markets on our other ALM sites, PropertyCasualty360 and ThinkAdvisor
Already have an account? Sign In Now
*May exclude premium content© 2024 ALM Global, LLC, All Rights Reserved. Request academic re-use from www.copyright.com. All other uses, submit a request to [email protected]. For more information visit Asset & Logo Licensing.