SAN BERNARDINO, CA—With restaurants like BJ's Pizza and Panera Bread under construction on locations in Menifee, CA, and with CBRE senior VP Scott Kaplan telling GlobeSt. com about the retail resurgence of San Bernardino County, can it be that things are looking up on the retail front? Multiple sources say there's truth to the statement.

Jerry Holdner, a VP of market research at Voit Real Estate Services, foresees a continued increase in investment activity in the coming quarters "as lenders dispose of distressed assets." He points out that lease rates have begun to stabilize and are expected to continue to firm up and increase in the rest of 2012. "As job creation continues and consumer confidence stabilizes, the retail market will continue to recover."

Brad Umansky, president of Progressive Real Estate Partners, also sees many positive indicators. "This was the first year in over four years that we had positive retail absorption in the first quarter," he says. "As Family Dollar and Dollar General continue to open up stores, it's resulting in a significant amount of sub-anchor space absorption."

Additionally, Umansky says, Wal-Mart Neighborhood Markets is getting ready to open in San Bernardino and Upland in the fall. "Many new retailers are either corporately owned or they are entrepreneurs with existing locations that are taking advantage of the more favorable leasing environment," he says.

While Kent Williams, managing director and acting regional manager of the Ontario office of Marcus & Millichap, says the retail market will remain soft as vacant shopping centers drag on market-wide performance, he admits that the outlook is improving. "The downturn in the local retail market was somewhat delayed as builders followed new home developments and retailers signed lengthy leases only to see many of the new residents fall into foreclosure or short sale," he says. "Consequently, the trough of the market was not until the first half of 2010, when vacancy peaked at 11.9%."

With less recovery time and continued expiration of leases signed during the boom, "vacancy levels will remain 100 basis points above the five-year average through 2012," he predicts.

Williams does point out, though, that retail sales have gained momentum, warranting an increase in absorption. In addition, he says, "low debt costs and early signs of improvement will encourage more investors to take advantage of discounted properties across the Inland Empire."

More conservative buyers with long-termhold strategies, he explains, will target affordable assets in areas such as Rancho Cucamonga, and parts of Ontario "where single-tenant properties typically yield in the high-6% to low-7% range."

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Natalie Dolce

Natalie Dolce, editor-in-chief of GlobeSt.com and GlobeSt. Real Estate Forum, is responsible for working with editorial staff, freelancers and senior management to help plan the overarching vision that encompasses GlobeSt.com, including short-term and long-term goals for the website, how content integrates through the company’s other product lines and the overall quality of content. Previously she served as national executive editor and editor of the West Coast region for GlobeSt.com and Real Estate Forum, and was responsible for coverage of news and information pertaining to that vital real estate region. Prior to moving out to the Southern California office, she was Northeast bureau chief, covering New York City for GlobeSt.com. Her background includes a stint at InStyle Magazine, and as managing editor with New York Press, an alternative weekly New York City paper. In her career, she has also covered a variety of beats for M magazine, Arthur Frommer's Budget Travel, FashionLedge.com, and Co-Ed magazine. Dolce has also freelanced for a number of publications, including MSNBC.com and Museums New York magazine.