Well, that didn't take long, did it? In Phoenix, one of the hardesthit residential and commercial real estate markets in the country, experts predicted it could be a decade or more before any new construction began in earnest. Now wrecking balls are poised to swing and cranes are starting to rise again.

What's coming down? Hundreds of thousands of square feet of retail and office space that reached physical and/or economic obsolescence. And what's going up? Thousands of units of high-end multifamily rentals.

The housing downturn has tarnished the appeal of homeownership for a large portion of the population, adding significant numbers to the rental pool while changing the profile of the typical renter to include empty nesters and young professionals. This higher-income, net-worth renter is not looking for the traditional suburban garden apartments, but for dense, urban living within walking distance of dining, entertainment and shopping venues.

The demand for infill lifestyle living has created low singledigit vacancy rates for the upscale rental market, while commercial vacancies have escalated to anywhere from 10% to well over 30% in some harder-hit submarkets. These market forces have created a value imbalance in which entitled multifamily sites in appropriate amenity-rich locations are worth far more than the existing commercial projects.

Best-in-class locations like the Biltmore area in Central Phoenix attracted a national multifamily developer with plans to raze a former Hard Rock Café and specialty shops to build 270 units of high-density residential on a 4.8-acre site across from the Biltmore Fashion Park, a million-square-foot outdoor pedestrian mall. Hot spots like the Kierland area in North Scottsdale experienced the rezoning of an assemblage of parcels including a former nightclub and corporate headquarters that is now slated to become a 240-unit apartment project. In addition to being near high-end, condo-quality amenities, the 5.8-acre project will benefit from its location across the street from two of the most distinguished mixed-use developments in the Southwest, Scottsdale Quarter and Kierland Commons.

Countless other projects, big and small, are surfacing predominantly in the more urban cores of Phoenix, Scottsdale and Tempe. A foreclosed, mid-block South Scottsdale parcel, formerly home to a grocery store and fitness center, has just been sold to a prominent local multifamily developer who plans to build more than 500 units and additional retail on the 20-acre site.

Lincoln Center, at the marquee intersection of Scottsdale and Lincoln roads, was once a 30-year-old, 60,000-square-foot garden office building. Now it is the future home to high-end multifamily in the supply constrained Paradise Valley/Scottsdale submarket.

There is significant momentum and municipal/government support for this trend. How long it will last is uncertain, but in the red-hot Phoenix multifamily market, the old adage that retail follows rooftops can be amended for the time being. Right now, it's rooftops that are replacing retail.

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