American households seem to be just getting back on their feet after a long rough period. Personal and disposable income grew by 0.2% each. But that's still not at the pace of spending, and it's half the rate expected by most economists. Instead of going into banks, that money is going into retailers' cash registers. Indeed, the US personal savings rate declined from 4.3% of disposable income in January to 3.7% in February, the lowest level since August 2009.

Accounting for inflation, income actually fell.

Retailers would like to believe that the spending pace will continue as we get into the warmer months. But it's just as likely the trend will flatline or even reverse—after all, the mild winter gave people a reason to buy spring clothes and outdoor equipment earlier than they normally would.

It also looks like the pace of job growth is tapering off. As great as it was over a three-month period, only 156,000 jobs were added in February, and the unemployment rate was unchanged. March saw only 120,000 new jobs, though unemployment ticked down slightly to 8.2%.

And then there's gas prices, which have already gone up 20% this year to $3.92 per gallon, according to AAA. They're still rising—a gallon will cost $3.95, on average, through September, up 6.3% from the same period last year, reports the Energy Information Administration. Next month will see the peak, at $4.01 a gallon. According to Deloitte, every penny increase in gas prices amounts to a collective cost to consumers of $3.8 million daily. That's a lot of money.

So at this point, it's just a guessing game, and I'm sure many of you will be hearing about it at ICSC next month. My bet is that we won't see anything close to a spike in spending in the near future. As good of a mood we may be in, most households are still smarting from the kick delivered by the recession—it's a sting that won't go away anytime soon.