ORANGE COUNTY, CA-The office picture is brightening in Orange County as the final quarter of 2012 saw nearly 500,000 square feet of positive net absorption, according to Voit Real Estate Services' fourth-quarter market report. In addition, the industrial market here posted one of the lowest vacancy rates seen in 15 quarters, finishing the year at 4.68%.
“These are encouraging numbers across the board, and we anticipate that this improvement will continue steadily throughout 2013,” said Jerry Holdner, VP of market research at Voit, in a prepared statement. “The big news is that lease rates have likely hit bottom in the office market, where class-A product is leading the recovery, and low vacancy and availability are driving up value and rental rates in the industrial market.”
Strong office leasing has given the market approximately 1.6 million square feet of positive absorption for the year and over 4.6 million square feet of positive absorption over 10 consecutive quarters, according to Voit's report. Vacancy was at 13.76% at year-end 2012, a substantial decrease from the previous year's rate of 15.13% and significantly down from both the Great Recession peak of nearly 18% in Q2 2010 and the market high of 23% recorded in 1990. Availability followed the same trend, ending the fourth quarter at 18.96%, a decrease of nearly 2% over Q4 2011.
Voit's report also indicates that high-end space is fueling the activity in Orange County, since class-A space had the greatest amount of positive absorption in 2012 of over 850,000 square feet. Holdner noted that Allergan, CoreLogic, Western Digital, LA Fitness, Greenlight Financial and Gateway One all expanded in 2012, a trend that brings stability to the market. “Research-oriented businesses—including IT, defense, medical and alternative-energy companies—are most likely to lead the charge of positive absorption over the next few years.”
The county's office market also saw encouraging average lease-rate numbers since office rents have finally flattened and concessions are beginning to back off, said Holdner. “Both are strong indications that we have reached a bottom in the downward trend of asking office lease rates, and we anticipate that rates will begin to increase in 2013.”
The average asking lease rate per month per square foot in the Orange County office market was $1.88 at the end of 2012's fourth quarter, unchanged from Q3 2012.
As GlobeSt.com previously reported, construction has also picked up in the county, and Voit reports that total office space under construction came in at almost 950,000 square feet for Q4. Two build-to-suits are the most notable construction projects in the office market: a 469,000-square-foot project for Hyundai in Fountain Valley and a 479,800-square-foot project for PIMCO at Fashion Island in Newport Beach.
“As we move into 2013, we expect the amount of vacant and available space to continue to decrease, which will prompt continued positive absorption and an increase in lease rates,” said Holdner.
However, according to a Q4 office report from Cushman & Wakefield, “Orange County continued its recovery though occupancy gains slowed compared with last year, down 39% to 1.4 msf of overall absorption. Leasing activity also slowed slightly by 8.9% to 7.8 msf compared with last year's 8.5 msf of activity. Overall vacancy continued to decline, dropping another 1.9 points from last year to 16%.”
The Orange County industrial market continued to display promising numbers in the fourth quarter of 2012, posting 948,377 square feet of positive net absorption during the quarter, the report says. Overall, the OC industrial market has posted nearly 4.7 million square feet of positive absorption since Q2 2010, said Holdner. “We anticipate that net absorption will continue its positive trend in 2013.”
The low vacancy rate seen at the close of Q4 was a decrease of 7.33% when compared to Q4 2011, and availability of direct/sublease space being marketed ended the fourth quarter at 7.33%, a decrease of 1.69%% from 2011's Q4 rate of 8.3%. The average asking triple-net industrial lease rate was $.57 per square foot per month, one cent higher than the previous quarter and two cents higher than the $.55 rate seen in Q4 2011. Holdner is forecasting that lease rates will continue to rise, ending 2013 at around $.60 per square foot per month.
Also, as lease rates rise, sale price are also ticking up, thanks to a diminishing supply of industrial product for sale in OC, particularly in the 30,000- to 100,000-square-foot range. “Currently, only around 3% of the inventory in the Orange County industrial market is available for sale,” said Holder. “This lack of supply will continue to place upward pressure on pricing going forward.”
The average asking sales price for industrial properties in Q4 2012 was $148.99 per square foot, an 11.71% increase from the previous year's price of $133.77. Holder sees improvement in both the office and industrial markets continuing into the year, “provided job creation continues and consumer confidence stabilizes.”
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