NEW YORK CITY-They may be part of the system, but that doesn't mean they have no complaints about it.
A number of Manhattan commercial real estate executives who were recently surveyed said assets in the city are overpriced and many said investing in real estate in the Big Apple is a risky proposition.
More than 100 New York commercial property owners, brokers, managers, attorneys and other real estate executives were surveyed by accounting firm Marks Paneth & Shron and the results, released on Wednesday, showed several signs of discontentment in the industry's ranks.
Over half of commercial real estate executives, 52%, said commercial real estate in New York City is overvalued compared with commercial property in other major global cities. Eight percent said it's highly overvalued, and another 44% said it's moderately overvalued.
Nearly three-quarters, or 74%, said there's moderate to high risk in investing in Manhattan's commercial property. Only a quarter (24%) said there is moderately low or low risk.
In ranking the city's next big thing, the majority of respondents, 24% were most likely to cite the Garment Center/West 30s as the next “hot” area for office space, according to a report on the survey results. The next largest group, 17%, cited the Grand Central area—though calls for the city to up-zone the Grand Central district could boost that number in the future. Just 15% of respondents called Hells Kitchen/the far West Side the next frontier.
Respondents also weighed in on Hurricane Sandy's impact on Downtown inventory. Most executives said the superstorm dealt buildings in Lower Manhattan a blow that will last for some time. More than a third, 36%, say commercial property values in Lower Manhattan will be lower in 2013 because of the effects of Hurricane Sandy. Another 19% say storm damage has permanently lowered commercial property values there.
Nearly half of the executives (47%) say Lower Manhattan property owners will be forced to lower lease rates and offer incentives to retain existing commercial tenants, and one in five say many existing tenants will relocate as leases expire. Only one in 10 executives say they believe the Financial District is the next “hot” office area where rents will rise.
What developments stand to have the greatest impact on property values?
A majority of survey participants, 44%, were most inclined to tap the Hudson Yards development, in the far West 30s, as the major project that will have the most positive effect on neighborhood commercial property values.
The next biggest group, 25%, chose the Long Island Rail Road access to Grand Central project, followed by the Second Avenue Subway. The smallest group, 8%, chose the Freedom Tower development at the World Trade Center site.
Industry watchers declined to comment to GlobeSt.com on this data. Do you agree with these results or do you have a different opinion? Please share your take in the comment box below.
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Rayna Katz
Rayna Katz is a seasoned business journalist whose extensive experience includes coverage of the lodging sector, travel and the culinary space. She was most recently content director for a business-to-business publisher, overseeing four publications. While at Meeting News, a travel trade publication, she received a Best Reporting award for a story on meeting cancellations in New Orleans during Hurricane Katrina.
