The Ten Year Will Be Much Higher When You Exit

Interest rates will be rising in the next year or so and it is important to recall where they have been historically before the Fed started to manipulate the market. In the thirty years form 1977 to 2007 they averaged 7.597%. In the 21 years form 1987 to 2007 they averaged 6.19%. and since 1997 to 2007 it was 4.99%. It is important to note that the period form 2001 onward we one in which the Fed was pushing rates to artificially low levels and so there is a downward bias in the latter years. So if you look at 1987 to 2000 the average was 7.07%.

The point of all of this statistics is that when you think about exit values and cap rates five years, you need to understand that the ten year really can be at 6% or even higher, depending on your forecast for macro circumstances which could be in effect at that time. While none of us can predict what will be the situation in 2018, it is safe to say it will not be what it is today. There will be a new administration, the deficit may be far worse or maybe Washington actually did something about entitlement reform and deficit reduction. Maybe there was a war with Iran in 2013 and the Mideast exploded and oil is $200. Maybe a lot of things and black swans. We have no way to predict any of this with any reasonable degree of confidence.