NEW YORK CITY-They may be part of the system, but that doesn't mean they have no complaints about it.
A number of recently surveyed Manhattan commercial real estate executives say assets in the city are overpriced and many said investing in real estate in the Big Apple is a risky proposition.
More than 100 New York commercial property owners, brokers, managers, attorneys and other real estate executives were surveyed by accounting firm Marks Paneth & Shron and the results, released on Wednesday, showed several signs of discontentment in the industry's ranks.
Over half of commercial real estate executives, 52%, said commercial real estate in New York City is overvalued compared with commercial property in other major global cities. Eight percent said it's highly overvalued, and another 44% said it's moderately overvalued.
Nearly three-quarters, or 74%, said there's moderate to high risk in investing in Manhattan's commercial property. Only a quarter (24%) said there is moderately low or low risk.
Abe Schlisselfeld, partner in the real estate group at Marks, tells GlobeSt.com, “The more conservative owners still believe price per square foot is a little high. They feel that for what they can lease the space for, they're not going to get the return.”
In the last few years, Sclisselfeld continues, “the buyers have been institutional investors, we're not hearing the names of some of the usual, conservative real estate families. And the institutions invest differently than some of the conservative families do.”
He declines to name particular families, but adds, “the families have been sitting on the sidelines waiting to invest until prices decline.” Schlisselfeld was puzzled by the results indicating how many respondents viewed New York City as a risky proposition.
“I'm surprised that people say that, all I can figure is that it's in line with those who say NYC is overvalued. Maybe it's foreign investors, who may be more interested in China or Dubai. There is the perception that those places are more reliable because those places are booming whereas New York is just doing ok. You don't see cranes here but in China and other countries, cranes are everywhere."
Still, he counters, "NYC real estate is, and always will be, a great investment. It's the financial capital of the world, everything centers around it. There's always another area that seems to be croping up--like Downtown right now--and maybe that will even extend to the outer boroughs at some point.”
In ranking the city's next big thing, the majority of respondents, 24% were most likely to cite the Garment Center/West 30s as the next “hot” area for office space, according to a report on the survey results. The next largest group, 17%, cited the Grand Central area—though calls for the city to up-zone the Grand Central district could boost that number in the future. Just 15% of respondents called Hells Kitchen/the far West Side the next frontier.
Respondents also weighed in on Hurricane Sandy's impact on Downtown inventory. Most executives said the superstorm dealt buildings in Lower Manhattan a blow that will last for some time. More than a third, 36%, say commercial property values in Lower Manhattan will be lower in 2013 because of the effects of Hurricane Sandy. Another 19% say storm damage has permanently lowered commercial property values there.
Nearly half of the executives (47%) say Lower Manhattan property owners will be forced to lower lease rates and offer incentives to retain existing commercial tenants, and one in five say many existing tenants will relocate as leases expire. Only one in 10 executives say they believe the Financial District is the next “hot” office area where rents will rise.
What developments stand to have the greatest impact on property values?
A majority of survey participants, 44%, were most inclined to tap the Hudson Yards development, in the far West 30s, as the major project that will have the most positive effect on neighborhood commercial property values.
The next biggest group, 25 percent, chose the Long Island Railroad access to Grand Central project, followed by the Second Avenue Subway. The smallest group, 8%, chose the Freedom Tower development at the World Trade Center site.
Do you agree with these results or do you have a different opinion? Please share your take in the comment box below.
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