NEW YORK CITY-Well, the problem could be worse. But while most of 2013 is being seen as a replay of 2012, the lurching recovery is expected to come to full bloom later this year resulting in serious price increases. The trick then for commercial real estate investors will be when to pull the trigger.

“There's turbulence in the market as it relates to investment conviction,” says Ron Dickerman, president of Manhattan-based Madison International Realty. “It's a tale of two worlds. On the one hand you have a sluggish US economy that hasn't proven it can create jobs. You've got a fiscal cliff and you've got a Euro crisis that's creating a lot of stagnation.”

But there's also the general sense, especially in the commercial real estate market, that things are starting, as Dickerman says, “to warm up. We're reading about some very big plays, like 237 Park and 75 Rock Center. These are big bets with underwritten returns based on rental rate growth, occupancy enhancement, tenant retention and the continuation of low interest rates and no cap-rate expansion.”

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John Salustri

John Salustri has covered the commercial real estate industry for nearly 25 years. He was the founding editor of GlobeSt.com, and is a four-time recipient of the Excellence in Journalism award from the National Association of Real Estate Editors.