The stock market and number of food stamp recipients (nearly 48 million Americans) hit new records at the same time—both new highs, just as unemployment ticks down to 7.7% and private hiring kicks up—notably in construction. The payroll tax gnaws at weekly pay checks and it's too early to understand the impacts of federal government spending cuts (sequester)—at least scattered layoffs and furloughs particularly but not exclusively in the public sector. The Fed keeps interest rates low, because the bankers do not see enough evidence of economic improvement, and the big commercial banks pass their stress tests—what a surprise. Instead of hiring, companies feel compelled to return excess cash to shareholders in record dividends or undertake stock buybacks—they can stay more profitable if they keep lean and do their hiring in cheaper overseas markets. The nation's household wealth has been restored thanks to the recent stock market boom and improvement in the housing market—some folks are at least feeling more affluent. Consumers seem to be borrowing again to buy things after paying down debt. But wages are not going up appreciably and the benefit burden keeps shifting to workers. At least health care costs are not increasing as much as they had been.
At the same time two familiar retailers—JC Penney and Barnes & Noble--head into critical care, while Facebook alters its look once again to stay relevant and extend its half-life. Time Warner eschews its formerly formidable magazine empire before it turns worthless, but Warren Buffet likes local newspapers and catsup. Have we given up on Sears and K-Mart yet?
“High Street Retail” is the new buzz for where real estate investors concentrate their attention since the fortress malls are spoken for and secondary malls as well as many power centers run out of gas in commodity places… The idea is to buy up storefronts along hip urban streetscapes in Manhattan's Meat Packing District, Miami's South Beach, Beverly Hills, or anywhere else where the rich play. Some of the major resort hotels and luxury hospitality brands rebound too—their guests are the same people who shop along the High Streets.
But you still see a lot of empty store fronts in strip malls and middle class neighborhoods—the mom and pops have not returned yet in any force. And then you read about how homebuilders are working deals to get low equity down loans for buyers who cannot afford more. (Do we ever learn?)
Do you get the sense that what recovery has occurred so far has been skewed in favor of the higher income strata—the people who own stocks and have significant equity in their homes? And does everyone who has a 401K suddenly feel a sense of restored affluence when the average account only has about $80,000 in it? Then consider that nearly a sixth of the population uses food stamps—these are not the folks stoking sales at Whole Foods and Fairway.
The High Street scene is doing just fine, but High Street still needs to worry about Main Street and the other side of town where people don't own stocks. And the economy and the stock market cannot live off low interest rates forever.
Care to window shop along Rodeo Drive?
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