SEATTLE-Those who follow @GlobeStcom on Twitter and @GlobeStLIVE may have seen a post teasing the announcement, but GlobeSt.com has learned that a nationwide panel of more than 100 professional forecasters expects home values to end 2013 up an average of 4.6% and rise cumulatively by 22%, on average, over the next five years, according to the first quarter Zillow Home Price Expectations Survey. Additionally, a majority of panelists indicated support for policies that would allow certain underwater homeowners to refinance at today's low rates.
Survey respondents predicted home values will rise another 4.2% on average in 2014, before moderating somewhat to annual appreciation rates between 3.6% and 3.8% for 2015, 2016 and 2017.
On average, panelists predicted home values to rise 4.1% annually from 2013 through 2017, exceeding the pre-housing bubble (1987-1999) average annual appreciation rate of 3.6%. This is the first time the predicted average annual growth rate for the next five years has surpassed pre-bubble levels since the survey's inception three years ago, according to Zillow.
The firm's chief economist, Stan Humphries, points out that “The panel is quite bullish on home prices near-term.” He notes that with that said, “their expectations are a bit shy of the home value gains of 5.5% that we saw in 2012, implying some moderation in the pace of gains. The panel expectations are consistent with continued strong home value growth this year fueled by tighter-than-normal inventory of for-sale homes and robust demand attributable to high affordability and a stronger general economy.”
The most optimistic of panelists predicted a 6.1% increase in home values in 2013, on average, while the most pessimistic predicted an average increase of 3%. Through 2017, panelists predicted cumulative home value changes of 22%, on average. Expectations for cumulative home value change projections ranged from 34.2% among the most optimistic quartile to 11.7% among the most pessimistic, on average.
To see more on the numbers, check out the graphs below.
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Natalie Dolce
Natalie Dolce, editor-in-chief of GlobeSt.com and GlobeSt. Real Estate Forum, is responsible for working with editorial staff, freelancers and senior management to help plan the overarching vision that encompasses GlobeSt.com, including short-term and long-term goals for the website, how content integrates through the company’s other product lines and the overall quality of content. Previously she served as national executive editor and editor of the West Coast region for GlobeSt.com and Real Estate Forum, and was responsible for coverage of news and information pertaining to that vital real estate region. Prior to moving out to the Southern California office, she was Northeast bureau chief, covering New York City for GlobeSt.com. Her background includes a stint at InStyle Magazine, and as managing editor with New York Press, an alternative weekly New York City paper. In her career, she has also covered a variety of beats for M magazine, Arthur Frommer's Budget Travel, FashionLedge.com, and Co-Ed magazine. Dolce has also freelanced for a number of publications, including MSNBC.com and Museums New York magazine.
