[IMGCAP(1)]

LOS ANGELES-“A year ago, this economic panel was very bullish on the state of the CRE industry based on all the positive data we saw throughout 2010 and 2011 in terms of transaction volume, pricing and capital flows on both the equity and debt sides. As far as this year goes, there's no doubt you'll be hearing much the same levels of optimism.” So says Scott Farb, partner of CohnReznick at RealShare Los Angeles. And, on the top of that, he says, the housing markets throughout the country are finally roaring back to life, which was not necessarily the case a year ago. “This is not only great news for the real estate industry, but spells very positive news for the overall economy as well.”

Farb served as moderator of the morning's “Economic Outlook: 2013 and Beyond” panel at the conference, held at the Hyatt Regency Century Plaza Los Angeles. The RealShare conference series day-long event, which is drawing nearly 1,000 industry executives, is produced by ALM's Real Estate Media Group, which also publishes GlobeSt.com and Real Estate Forum.

According to Farb's research, commercial real estate transaction volume across all sectors increased 13.5% to $348 billion in 2012, up from $307 billion in 2011. And for transactions of at least $25 million, volume was up 25% in 2012, he says. This is following a 65% increase in 2011 over 2010. What's really telling, he explains, is that land sales had the biggest percentage increase of 22.6% in 2012, which he says is “indicative of the increased demand for future development and an improving housing market.”

[IMGCAP(4)]

According to panelist Christopher Thornberg, founder and principal of Beacon Economics,last year, a lot of the good returns were based on a rebound effect. “The fear of the double-dip has faded and these returns reflect that investors are more confident in where things are heading,” he said. “Fundamentals are getting back to a more normal level, but the one area of the market that that is probably not true is in the owner-occupied space.”

Michael Cohen, director of advisory services at PPR Global Research,says that equity markets, particularly in the US are at an all-time high. “The takeaway here is that all the capital spigots are open.” Cohen pointed to a bigger risk appetite and improved business confidence being a few of the signs pointing to a continued positive momentum.

[IMGCAP(3)]

KC Conway,executive managing director of Real Estate Analytics at Colliers International, agreed that capital is plentiful, which is helping the recovery. “We are in an era where we are seeing paper money migrate into anything tangible. The combination of capital is helping drive this recovery, but my worry is about 2014. Our fiscal issues will come home to roust…so 2013 will be good, 2014 will be questionable. There will be some cut back and some inflation.”

According to Cohen, the economy is improving and there are tremendous headwinds, but like Conway, he also expects to see some speed bumps when the fed pulls back in 2014.

Thornberg pointed out that he is currently not seeing any drivers of inflation. “Until the banks start to lend at a very rapid pace—then you should be worried.” For Eric Paulsen, president of the commercial division at Auction.com, the confidence out there is overrated. “I think people are being sick and tired of being sick and tired.”

[IMGCAP(2)]

Farb pointed out that giant institutional investors such as Blackstone, which purchased 20,000 homes since early last year, are buying $100 million a week and have spent $3.5 billion. Colony has spent over $1 billlion on more than 8,000 homes in seven states, and Oaktree and Apollo have raised between $6 billion and $9 billion to buy single-family homes. And in Southern California, he said, the median home price has jumped 21% over last year, with more than one-third of the buyers paying cash.

He added that the government and financial institutions have not yet begun to sell off their foreclosure homes in large portfolios as expected last year when Fannie Mae conducted a pilot sales experiment. Farb's question to panelists was how long this investment strategy remain viable given the fact that these funds require high-teens to low-20s returns, how all this investor activity is impacting the housing and residential rental markets and what happens when and if it stops.

Cohen was first to chime in, noting that the housing bust is what is really driving the trend. The fundamentals in the apartment market are as tight as they have ever been, he says, and given the fact that the homeownership rate has dropped, it has equated to millions of additional renter households. “We have yet to see really strong sustained job growth among young folks,” he adds. If the economy gets stronger, and as there is stronger job growth, he predicts younger housing formations.

Thornberg said those statistics are really interesting for the people who own apartments, and the big question is what those big investors to do with the product in four years.

Auction.com's Paulson says that banks have been hesitant to pull the trigger. “There is a lot of demand out there, but lots of that demand is the investors. And supply has been constrained a bit because of the government,” he said, adding that he predicts an increased supply to come on in the coming year. “If you are an apartment guy chasing yield, it is time to go find another product.”

Keep checking back with GlobeSt.com for more coverage from the RealShare L.A. conference.

Continue Reading for Free

Register and gain access to:

  • Breaking commercial real estate news and analysis, on-site and via our newsletters and custom alerts
  • Educational webcasts, white papers, and ebooks from industry thought leaders
  • Critical coverage of the property casualty insurance and financial advisory markets on our other ALM sites, PropertyCasualty360 and ThinkAdvisor
NOT FOR REPRINT

© 2024 ALM Global, LLC, All Rights Reserved. Request academic re-use from www.copyright.com. All other uses, submit a request to [email protected]. For more information visit Asset & Logo Licensing.

Natalie Dolce

Natalie Dolce, editor-in-chief of GlobeSt.com and GlobeSt. Real Estate Forum, is responsible for working with editorial staff, freelancers and senior management to help plan the overarching vision that encompasses GlobeSt.com, including short-term and long-term goals for the website, how content integrates through the company’s other product lines and the overall quality of content. Previously she served as national executive editor and editor of the West Coast region for GlobeSt.com and Real Estate Forum, and was responsible for coverage of news and information pertaining to that vital real estate region. Prior to moving out to the Southern California office, she was Northeast bureau chief, covering New York City for GlobeSt.com. Her background includes a stint at InStyle Magazine, and as managing editor with New York Press, an alternative weekly New York City paper. In her career, she has also covered a variety of beats for M magazine, Arthur Frommer's Budget Travel, FashionLedge.com, and Co-Ed magazine. Dolce has also freelanced for a number of publications, including MSNBC.com and Museums New York magazine.