Anyone skittish about hotels, perhaps based on the performance of such assets in other recoveries, can rest easy this time around. That's because hotels are poised to do well in 2013 and beyond—on several fronts—according to analysts.
“The industry is in the midst of a strong, multi-year up cycle,” says David Loeb, senior research analyst at Robert W. Baird & Co. “The spread between supply and demand is still growing.”
“I think there's an optimistic view with respect to the hotel industry in 2013,” says Nina Rocket, a partner in the real estate practice with the Oldham law firm. And her words do a commendable job of summarizing the industry's sentiments going into 2013. Data from across the board shows positive views for ADR and RevPAR and, according a presentation given by Arthur Adler, managing director & CEO, Americas of Jones Lang LaSalle's Hotels & Hospitality Group, titled “Transaction Volume, Hotel Values and Outlook,” IRRs and cap rates will further compress in 2013.
In fact, JLL reveals in its Hotel Investor Sentiment Survey that New York City, San Francisco, Hawaii and Boston maintained the lowest targeted cap rates at 6.4%, 6.5%, 6.9% and 7.0%, respectively. This illustrates continued investor interest to secure a foothold in these high entry-barrier markets, according to the report. And Adler adds some color to this: “cap rates have been doing well if you're a seller,” he says. “They're still relatively low and what's driving that is the industry is expected to show steady growth over the next five years or so. In addition, interest rates are low and debt is becoming more available.”
And while the sector has been experiencing good health for a while, the reasons behind that are changing, notes hotel expert Jan Freytag, SVP at Smith Travel Research.
“Now that we're in the second part of the recovery, average daily rate is driving RevPAR,” he says. “There's pricing power in the market heading into 2015. Up until now, the recovery was driven by occupancy,” Freytag notes. STR's forecast calls for a sharp ADR jump this year of 4.9%, with almost a repeat prediction for 2014, when rates are slated to grow by 4.6%.
Robert Mandelbaum, director of research information services at PKF Consulting, agrees, noting that hotels will have to drive rate once there's no room to grow occupancy. “There isn't a lot of supply coming on line, and demand is rising,” he says, “so we're predicting high occupancy levels.”
Specifically, he says, “In the luxury and upper-upscale segments, which is Marriott, Hilton, Hyatt and Four Seasons—occupancy will be above 70% through 2017. Once a hotel is at 70%, it can't go much higher, so the pace of RevPAR may slow down for the upper tier but it's being driven by increases in pricing.”
There's not much need to worry about RevPAR; PKF is forecasting an increase this year in all 50 markets that it tracks. In particular, North Dakota, Pennsylvania and Texas—particularly Houston, will be helped by oil, according to Mandelbaum.
Investors are bullish, at least in Rocket's view. So far, she says, “there is more availability of capital, which gives investors more of an opportunity to make investments, whereas before, it required more equity. Now there is more flexibility.”
To this, Adler avers that “transaction activity will be slightly up over 2012. But that's going to depend on properties coming to market. Debt will continue to become more available and interest rates will stay low.” He states that industry professionals should expect fundamentals to continue to be strong this year.
But what product is most attractive to investors? Rocket has noticed that foreign tourists tend to choose to stay in unique, boutique-style hotels—decisions that have boosted the segment. She also thinks the limited select service category is set to thrive in 2013. “With the downturn there was the concept of the staycation; now, there's a change in that trend,” she says. “People will tend to focus on the value of travel going forward.”
Adler concurs: “We're also seeing a dramatic interest in select service hotels.”
“If there's construction anywhere,” adds Mandelbaum, “it is in those segments.”
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