Retail can be a tricky commercial real estate sector. The best mall REITs are in terrific shape financially, yet the United States has vacant malls scattered across its landscape. Retailers' sales, for the most part, have been in a pretty good place since the darkest days of the recession, but the uncertain economy has consumers constantly weary—and wary—about the future. A lot of retailers have stepped up their expansion plans, though several big chains, like Borders, Blockbuster and Circuit City have essentially gone out of business. Companies are boosting their bottom lines, in part, from online sales, and they're merging with one another to become even more competitive.
A perfect example of this is the pending merger between Office Depot and OfficeMax. Both companies have lagged behind office-products leader Staples and seen their sales decline as competition has increased from the Internet and mass-merchandise retailers. Retail industry observers concur that the combined chains will lead to a better-performing entity, but the bad news for those who own shopping centers is store closures. At press time, there was no official word on how many stores will close, but the number 600 was kicked around in several articles.
Furthermore, there is little doubt that e-commerce is exerting its impact on the retail sector and its real estate space. Velocity Retail principal Darren Pitts points out that Internet sales account for approximately 10% of all retail sales. “We don't see that trend slowing down,” he says. “If anything, it'll accelerate with the availability of mobile devices.”
Areas impacted already by e-commerce—not to mention the rise in e-readers—include books. Amazon.com, as the 800-pound gorilla, has resulted in the aforementioned Borders going out of business and is forcing Barnes & Noble into fierce competition, though the latter has announced it's closing many of its stores. Jean Smith, managing partner with United Commercial Realty, points out that the video industry has been hard hit (think Blockbuster, also mentioned above). These days, he points out, the gaming industry is starting to feel the e-commerce pressure, which will have ramifications for companies such as GameStop. “Kids can now download games online,” Smith notes. “They don't have to leave the house anymore.”
This trend is starting to change how retail space is being used—and how it's being vacated. Smith and Faith Hope Consolo, chairman of the retail leasing and sales division with New York City-based Douglas Elliman Real Estate, point out, however, that the vacated space is being taken up quickly by grocery stores. And not just any grocery stores, either. The specialty shops, such as Trader Joe's and Sprouts, are expanding rapidly. “Those big holes are getting filled, more by food than anything else,” Consolo says.
The other side of the online trend involves the right-sizing of space. Pitts points out that this involves retailers shrinking their stores, with Best Buy being the poster child of that trend. “In the old days, Best Buy needed a 35,000-square-foot box,” Pitts says. “They can get by with 16,000 square feet or 18,000 square feet today.”
None of this is good news for landlords that are still trying to fill vacancies left by other big-box retailers. But Bill Rose, director of Marcus & Millichap's national retail group, doesn't see the scenario as all doom and gloom. “While we've seen brands fade away, we've seen new ones blossom,” he says, pointing to Fixtures Living, a large-box furniture concept that is gaining popularity and growing in California. Strong locations should fill up pretty quickly, and in the case of not-so-great locations, there is still some hope because of recent innovations by developers over the last few years. “We've seen old Walmarts get repositioned from one large store to two or three new ones,” he says. “I've seen old department-store retailers get converted into a clothier on the top and a discounter on the bottom.”
Furthermore, even as the Best Buys of the world are shrinking their space, Consolo points out that drug stores have expanded their product mixes and footprints. “You can buy cooked meals, higher-end cosmetics and patio furniture now at our area drug stores,” she points out. “That requires a lot more space. And note that most of that is something you really can't buy on the Internet.”
As far as future consolidations go, Rose says anyone selling goods that are readily available on the Internet could face trouble, like what the industry has seen in electronics and music. The stronger chains will always be the ones where you have to physically go to a location to get a good or service, such as restaurants and convenience stores. “Experiential” retail, places where people just want to be, also will continue to thrive, and Rose uses Apple Stores as a prime example. “I don't have go to that store to buy anything, but we do because there is good education and entertainment value there.”
Pitts agrees, adding that successful retailers have struck a solid balance between bricks and mortar and online clicks. “If these companies aren't doing anything online, they're suffering. If they're doing 100% of their stuff online, they're not quite getting it, either,” he says. It's still part of the retail experience to check something out in person.”
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