IRVINE, CA-ORION Property Partners was involved in four of Orange County's top-10 office-lease transactions and completed 124 lease transactions encompassing a total of more than 1.5 million square feet of office space in 2012. GlobeSt.com sat down with the firm's managing partner Jay Carnahan to discuss the market's office leasing and investment trends and what landlords should be aware of in today's market.
GlobeSt.com: What is driving demand in the Orange County tenant market?
Jay Carnahan: Most of the demand is organic, meaning that the majority of growth in Orange County has come from companies already located here. This has been happening for 35 years because of our diverse economic environment. While not all sectors are growing at the same rate, finance, tech and healthcare are all expanding. Google has a presence in the heart of the county's Airport area and is already expanding. The firm has preleased a build-to-suit in addition to the space they already have at Google Center. This example embodies the fact that people, whether it's the key decision-makers at these companies or their employees, want to live and work in Orange County. When companies decide to grow, they're growing here because we have a highly educated workforce, many highly-ranked educational institutions and a very strong quality of life. Moreover, most Orange County employees receive a higher than average pay. Pimco, which is having the Irvine Co. build a class-A 20-story, 380,000-square-foot building for them, could have located anywhere, but they chose Orange County. Hyundai expanded its capital finance group and is building its own corporate campus in Fountain Valley. They already had a foothold in Orange County, but they're expanding their service here.
GlobeSt.com: How are you advising landlords in today's market?
J.C.: What we're saying to landlords is, most of the top tier, “best-of-the-best,” class-A office buildings in the Airport area are 90% leased and are beginning to increase rents. However, the second-tier buildings have yet to recover. So, they're competing heavily to increase occupancy. We're expecting a 3% to 5% rental-rate increase in the last quarter of this year and the first quarter of next year and 5% increases in class-A office space, if not 10%, by 2015 and 2016. It's always better to lease space than let it remain vacant, so we're advising to do short-term leases if you can because rents are going to be 30% to 40% higher in five years.
GlobeSt.com: How is the office investment market? What are the greatest opportunities in Orange County today for buyers?
J.C.: The class-A, large, 200,000-square-foot-plus properties in the Airport area are generally in high demand, and there are limited opportunities to buy them. There have not been too many of the class-B, smaller, institutional-sized buildings of 60,000 to 180,000 square feet coming to market because demand hasn't been strong for them. The lenders who have foreclosed on them because the buildings are under water want to lease them up before they come to market. The most notable in that class is the AIG portfolio, which foreclosed on Bixby Land Co. In Central Orange County, there is a 5.1 million square-foot class-A base, and at least six of these buildings have been foreclosed on by a special servicer or gone back to the lender. The biggest opportunity to buy low and sell high in Central Orange County is around Anaheim Stadium and the Block. This is where one of our biggest clients, CashCall, has grown and done the most leasing. CashCall has grown from 600 to 1,800 employees in the last three years.
GlobeSt.com: What is the future of the “boutique” commercial real estate services firm?
J.C.: We started this firm in 2000, and every year we've been profitable. It seems like we're the only one still standing. We've been blessed with the biggest institutional clients who typically go to the big firms. All of the national firms are competing, and some of these firms are trying to get into Orange County: DTZ, Avison Young and Cassidy Turley. They're all competing with CBRE, Jones Lang LaSalle, Cushman & Wakefield and Newmark Grubb Knight Frank. I predict that you will see a number of brokers shifting seats this year. Two of the top brokers from DTZ went to work for NGKF, and that's a sign that they didn't like what their firm was doing. When the large brokerage houses start recruiting, the process many times upsets existing teams. There will always be a place for boutique-type firms. These firms provide what the larger firms can't. Typically, we are niche-focused, more experienced, and can provide a unique level of market intelligence and insight. We'll get stronger because I think you'll have growth in boutique firms as the behemoths shift around and compete for brokers. There's going to be a shakeout.
GlobeSt.com: To what do you credit ORION's record-breaking year?
J.C.: 30 years of relationships and reputation. The deal that Bob did with L.A. Fitness was the fifth or sixth transaction he completed for them in a 20-year period. The CashCall deal was the 10th deal in 20 years we completed. Greenlight was the fourth deal in 10 years. All of these examples are repeat customers that happen to now be in growth industries. Relationships and a track record are the reasons why. Plus we have unique relationships on both sides of the table. ORION's business is based on one-to-one relationships, not necessarily corporate name familiarity. They know Jay, Bob and the other senior partners here.
GlobeSt.com: What do you see in store for 2013?
J.C.: Four years ago, I predicted that you're going to see more build-to-suits for corporate America and cutting-edge companies. The unemployment rate in Orange County is expected to be at 6% in two years, and the competition for employees here will rise quickly. Retaining and attracting employees will be critical. That makes the corporate environment and location extremely valuable. More companies will have campuses built for them. When campuses get built, it means they can't find the corporate environment they're looking for in the existing inventory. This will also drive land values up, moving from having no value to having significant value in late 2013. In the last four quarters, we had 2.5 million square feet of net absorption. In 2005, when we were at the county's economic peak, there was 4.7 million square feet of absorption. We're operating at a little above half of that peak absorption. The trend to return to that level will start showing its signs in 2013, and that will lead to development and rising rents.
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