CALABASAS, CA- In an update to a previous Q&A interview with Alvin Mansour, GlobeSt.com's Natalie Dolce caught up with him again to chat about consumer confidence in preparation for Real Estate Forum's annual retail review, which will appear in the May issue.
According to Mansour, “Consumer sentiment reached 78.6 during March, the highest level since a plunge in December due to wrangling over the fiscal cliff. Most importantly, the present conditions matched a post-recession high in March at 90.7.”
Mansour points out that the strength in present conditions is due to falling gas prices and limited noticeable effect from the much-hyped sequestration. “Consumers have weathered most of the hurdles presented to them thus far in the recovery.”
The expectations component of the University of Michigan's Consumer Sentiment survey continues to lag the present conditions component, he points out. At 70.8 during March, the score is nearly 7 points below the November rating, largely due to political gridlock. The administration, he says, made a concerted effort in March to warn consumers about the dire consequences of spending cuts tied to sequestration, which likely dragged down the expectations component. “When those costs were not immediately realized, consumers shrugged off the campaign, leading to the largest mid-month jump in consumer confidence on record.”
However, March job gains, which were announced after the consumer confidence survey, were limited to 88,000 positions, he adds. “Retail job cuts totaled 44,000 spots during the month, an indication that consequences of the sequester and payroll tax increase are only now coming to light.”
Going forward, according to Mansour, “as sequestration spending cuts ripple through the economy through October, job growth will continue at a modest pace. Nonetheless, consumer confidence will slowly rise barring a new recession. High stock indexes, low interest rates, and an improving housing market will fuel confidence among consumers, particularly homeowners who can finally realize equity rebuilding in their houses.”
Be on the lookout for more on consumer confidence in the annual retail review in the May issue of Real Estate Forum.
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Natalie Dolce
Natalie Dolce, editor-in-chief of GlobeSt.com and GlobeSt. Real Estate Forum, is responsible for working with editorial staff, freelancers and senior management to help plan the overarching vision that encompasses GlobeSt.com, including short-term and long-term goals for the website, how content integrates through the company’s other product lines and the overall quality of content. Previously she served as national executive editor and editor of the West Coast region for GlobeSt.com and Real Estate Forum, and was responsible for coverage of news and information pertaining to that vital real estate region. Prior to moving out to the Southern California office, she was Northeast bureau chief, covering New York City for GlobeSt.com. Her background includes a stint at InStyle Magazine, and as managing editor with New York Press, an alternative weekly New York City paper. In her career, she has also covered a variety of beats for M magazine, Arthur Frommer's Budget Travel, FashionLedge.com, and Co-Ed magazine. Dolce has also freelanced for a number of publications, including MSNBC.com and Museums New York magazine.
