HOUSTON-There is little doubt that things are looking up for Oil City -- as Houston is sometimes known -- and its suburbs. Energy continues driving the local economy, as are the biotech industry (thanks to the Medical District) and changing logistics trends (thanks to the Port of Houston and the anticipated Panama Canal widening). With help from these trends, which are leading to jobs creation and a growing population, commercial real estate is also on fire.
The region certainly deserves the good things it's getting, especially after the beating it's taken since the 1980s. This was one of the topics discussed frequently during the April 30 RealShare Houston Conference, which took place at the Petroleum club. "Houston has real job growth," observed David Hudson, senior vice president-Houston with Duke Realty during the conference's "Development in Houston" segment. Tom Melody, Jones Lang LaSalle's executive managing director concurred – during the "Town Hall Power Panel," he pointed out that "Houston isn't competing against other cities as much as it's positioned as a gateway city."
But experts at the conference, which was attended by close to 200 people, suggest that there is another side to the job growth, the rent growth, the occupancy growth and the growth of cranes. One such "other side" is the growth of build-to-suit office and industrial buildings. One reason why build-to-suits are going up so quickly is due to a lack of quality space. Furthermore, "The trend for larger oil companies that are flush with cash is to say 'we'll build our own,'" observed Paul Layne, executive vice president, master planned communities for the Howard Hughes Corp., during the "Development in Houston" panel, which was moderated by Walker Molinare, vice president and Houston sales manager with Stewart Title Guaranty.
Panel colleague Michal Wyatt, managing director with CORE Real Estate LLC went on to say that one large reason for the "build your own" movement is to have a new building to attract employees. "'Total employee engagement' is the new buzzword," he said, agreeing with other panelists, including McCord Development president Ryan McCord, that employers are angling for more favorable work environments to better attract, recruit and retain employees.
Furthermore, those build-to-suit tenants are more sophisticated. "They're getting smarter," Wyatt commented. "They want their rents based on cap rates, which are going down."
The "good news, but we need to be cautious" attitude was carried over into the Town Hall Power Panel, moderated by Avison Young managing principal Rand Stephens. In that session, panelists focused on the positive aspects of Houston, while taking a realistic look on the other side. The most vocal one on the other side was Tim Relyea, vice chairman with Cushman & Wakefield of Texas. Relyea, who pointed out that it's great to see a lot of cranes on the skyline, pointed out that many of those cranes were user-driven. "That will hurt the market when existing space is vacated," he predicted.
And what's going against the existing space is that it's older – it's not as cutting edge as the newer buildings going north. As such, "don't get drunk on a bunch of cranes," Relyea advised.
Relyea's panel colleagues didn't disagree, but were somewhat more tempered in their comments. Brookfield's regional head Paul Frazier pointed out that to boost tenant retention, it's important for the owners and landlords to make sure the tenant experience is good. "Keep an eye on the ball and improve product if you need to," he suggested.
Richard Rudd, president with Allied Advisors also pointed out that mobility is a huge issue when it comes to tenant decisions. At one time, employees didn't mind climbing into their cars for a long commute. But those days are fast disappearing. "Mobility and usage of time are what employers use to attract and retain their younger employees," Rudd observed. "And that determines where companies will locate."
Another concern cropping up was the amount of space going up on the west side, also known as the Energy Corridor submarket. Frazier pointed out that, while there seemed to be development discipline in the CBD, the same hasn't been true out west. Still, he noted, "the quality products will get filled up."
This led back to the issue that vacated space might be considered obsolete by potential tenants. Relyea noted that, for example, when Exxon Chemical Corp. leaves its one-million-plus-square-foot building in the Energy Corridor to relocate to Spring Village in a couple of years, it will leave a technically obsolete building. The benefit of the current Exxon location, however, is that it's a good one. "The Exxon building could be gutted and reskinned," Frazier said.
This isn't to suggest that either panel spent an inordinate amount of time focusing on the negatives of the growth – most were bullish on what's been happening. E.D. Lester, Stewart Title's group senior vice president and Town Hall Power Panelist noted that the growing demand in energy, coupled with Houston's role as an energy town is fueling the job growth. Adding to it is increasing interest from foreign investors, meaning more capital coming into the region.
"The big picture is that all jobs equate to rooftops," he added. "These equate to an increase in office buildings, retail and multifamily."
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