LOS ANGELES-The story of every cycle has defined chapters. The book that will canonize the present cycle is still being written, and we are rapidly moving through the third chapter. I cannot tell you how long the book will be (or who will option it for the screenplay), but I do know how it ends. That will have to wait for another time.

Let's review how our story is currently unfolding, shall we? 

Chapter One:  A short missive on distressed transactions and new capital formation. 

Chapter Two:  More on new capital formation, along with the restart of commercial lending and CMBS. On the transactional side, distress is moving to the background and yield instead becomes the dominant investment theme. Led by multifamily, arms-length transactions return as cap rates rapidly compress. Some notable “mega” trades and a few REIT M&A transactions commence. Core markets are beginning to wake up, it still seems to be all quiet in the peripheral markets.  

Chapter Three: The national economy is sputtering its way upward, and we have both abundance and efficiency of capital. Middle-market transactions, led by investors and smaller funds, are increasing. There are very few distressed transactions of note, as this once-dominant aspect of the market further fades. Investors are also beginning to reach into secondary markets in search of yield, as primary markets begin to produce lower yields than chapters past. Housing is recovering, and for the first time since the crash, there appears to be a greater supply of capital than demand for it.

So far, our recovery story is not too exciting. The reader is interested but not yet fully engaged. Do not fear, the story is about to get much more interesting. But why?

Quality economic growth is the necessary ingredient to fuel a sustained commercial real estate recovery. That said, employment and consumer recovery is yet to take hold.  While we are waiting, we have one more catalyst about to come into play, which will significantly increase transactional volume: Maturities.

A modest amount of CMBS maturities will result in refinance and sale transactions in 2013 and 2014. For CMBS alone, the estimates hover around $50 billion of loans coming due in each of these two years. The brunt of the maturity wave will hit beginning in 2015 and will be in full force in 2016 and 2017. The combined maturities over this 36-month period are expected to exceed $350 billion. Add in life companies, as well as bank and agency maturities, and the coming surge may well exceed $500 billion. No longer held back by the high cost of defeasance, these properties will either refinance or sell into the market.

This will be the next chapter, Chapter Four, in the unfolding story of this cycle.  Investors, lenders, intermediaries and literary agents—get ready. The narrative of this cycle is about to become much more compelling. In time, who knows, it may even be a bestseller.

David Rifkind is principal and managing director of George Smith Partners. The views expressed in this column are the author's own.