GlobeSt.com is providing wall-to-wall coverage of ICSC's RECon show in Las Vegas May 19-22. Retail Ticket will provide coverage of the event through the end of May, featuring pre-event articles, live video interviews on site and post-conference analysis. Contact Scott Thompson at [email protected] about how your firm can participate.
NEW YORK CITY-Jason Maier, who heads up the local office of Stan Johnson Co. (RECon booth S214S) does not see the net lease retail market slowing down. His firm is partnering with GlobeSt.com as a Thought Leader around the ICSC conference. Maier discussed why net lease will stay hot, how New York City fares compared to the rest of the country, who the buyers are right now and what he expects for the convention.
GlobeSt.com: Net lease retail is considered one of the hottest sectors of commercial real estate, maybe next to apartments. Do you see that slowing down?
Jason Maier: It's quite the opposite right now. The market's going to continue to trend the way that it has been going. It's getting even tighter in how far we've seen cap rates get compressed down. In the last six months, we've seen a 50 basis-point compression in cap rates across the board. We've seen a lot of owners that have been selling multifamily that have been shifting their assets into triple net lease. When discussing the motivation behind the sales of their assets, they are coming from 2% and 3% on sales of multifamily assets and into 4.5% cap rates for net lease, so it's a step up for them. As far as our sector is concerned, when you take a look at the five segments that make up the most of net lease, which are pharmacies, banks, quick-service restaurants, single-tenant offices and industrial assets, the pharmacy sector is easily a 50 basis-point drop in the last six to seven months. Walgreens and CVS that were trading at 6.25% are now trading at a 5.5% cap rate. The banks have compressed from 5.25% to some that are 4.5%. We just watched one trade at a 4.35% cap. Looking at the quick-serve restaurant, if we wanted to break them up by segment, in terms of franchisee credit versus corporate credit or McDonald's versus Wendy's or Applebee's or TGI Friday's, the drop has been 75 basis points.
GlobeSt.com: How do you rate the New York market compared to the rest of the country?
Maier: The words “el fuego” don't even begin to cover it. The New York market has always been somewhat insulated from the rest of the country simply because the demand for product is great. People have always been willing to accept lower cap rates in trophy markets. It is a flight to quality. The owners that have owned in secondary and tertiary markets are able to achieve cap rates that they know we'll never see again no matter how long they hold on to the asset. They're willing to take on cap rates in the five boroughs and New Jersey, which is the most populous state in the country. If it is a difference of 50 or 75 basis points to own in these markets, they are going to do it. They'll tolerate the cap rates, because they achieved a phenomenal cap rate on their sale. There's only one way to justify the sale, other than making great money, and that's the flight to quality or trying to own something that's in a dense market. That's another thing that's fueling a lot of the sales of secondary and tertiary markets in the United States. We can't keep a New York City deal on the market for longer than two to three weeks.
GlobeSt.com: Are there any tenants that are driving a lot of activity?
Maier: I wouldn't say a lot of activity. There's a lot of desperation and a lot of competitiveness. Tenants that were trading in the upper cap-rate ranges, like Dollar Generals, if you look back at 2010, they were trading in the upper 8% range to the lower 9% range. They are now trading at low 7%. Investors that are return-based are willing to sacrifice some quality in the tenancy in order to get a decent return. If you take a look at Gander Mountain, which is private and doesn't report sales, people think they should trade in the double digits, on size and replacement costs. But they are going to trade in the mid 8%. You're just really looking at the real estate, thinking you can go buy a Kohl's, but you're going to have to pay a 5.25% cap rate for the same box size. Do you really want to pay that for a Kohl's or would you rather roll the dice on a Dick's Sporting Goods? You have to go down the credit scale to get the yield, but it's been done consistently, and you just keep watching those cap rates as well. They get compressed, interest rates get lower, investors get more desperate. It's a huge supply and demand issue right now. And there has to between five and seven to every one property that is on the market.
GlobeSt.com: Are you seeing any changes in the types of buyers in the sector?
Maier: It used to be that our principal competitor was triple-tax free municipal bonds because of the yields they used to have. They're no longer in competition because their yields are so low. So for the safety and security, I would say you can go and buy a Walgreens bond and get a dividend, but you have no capital appreciation. So why wouldn't you just buy the real estate, have the capital appreciation, and get a better yield on that? Obviously, we are seeing that. You had over $50 billion in buying power brought into the United States specifically to purchase triple net-leased assets through three major REITs and private-equity groups. You have national pension funds, local pension funds, individual investors. You see banks and life companies again coming into the arena. The New York City Police Department pension fund and NYFD pension fund recently plunked down a ton of money with non-traded REITs specifically to buy net-lease properties. It really just shows the market. Everything we see in cap rates is a real reflection of what's going on in the debt markets and desperation from the lenders to put this money out on the streets behind quality. Back to 2009, the only real deals that got done were net lease. We're still the favorable segment of the market for the lending institutions. The negative side of all of this, the concern that everyone has is: What happens if interest rates go up?
GlobeSt.com: What are your expectations for RECon this year?
Maier: It's going to be more insanity. We've segmented the days. One day we're meeting with a lot of our developers around the country to look at their pipelines. The next day we're sitting down with a lot of the institutional REITs to discuss what kind of pipeline and cap rates they can expect. We are going to sit down with 15 of our development clients, largely in the single-tenant office and retail space, take a look at the pipeline and examine several assets that are coming online that will be available for either forward sale or ready for the market in the next six months and where we expect cap rates to be and pricing on those assets, and then immediately turn around and meet with some of the institutions on the forward take out on those and what kind of cap rates they can expect. The rest of it will be individual-investor product, which is the product that the institutions just can't compete on.
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