GlobeSt.com is providing wall-to-wall coverage of ICSC's RECon show in Las Vegas May 19-22. Retail Ticket will provide coverage of the event through the end of May, featuring pre-event articles, live video interviews on site and post-conference analysis. Contact Scott Thompson at [email protected] about how your firm can participate.
The West Coast, much of was hit hard by the recession's housing crash, is starting to recover strongly, says Craig Killman, a senior vice president with Jones Lang LaSalle (RECon booth C1001) out of their San Diego office. JLL is partnering with GlobeSt.com as a Thought Leader during RECon. Killman told us the trends he sees in various West Coast markets including Hawaii, how housing is coming back, rental rates and other trends in the retail real estate sector in that region.
GlobeSt.com: What are the retail dynamics you are seeing on the West Coast and in Hawaii?
Craig Killman: Retail follows rooftops – and in the last 30 or 45 days, the housing market has really boomed in California. It went from bumping along the bottom, to institutional investors like Blackstone and Coventry buying up residential inventory – it has literally dried up in the last month. With little available product, we are seeing upward pressure on home values, but we are still nowhere near where the levels of 2005. However, the housing market has stabilized and residential developers and retail developers in greenfield markets back to work! As consumer confidence picks up it will drive the retail market forward. We are slowly seeing people coming off the sidelines for things they may not have purchased in the last five years.
GlobeSt.com: How is leasing doing? Are you finding that landlords are getting the rental rates that they want?
Killman: Landlords are definitely getting rental rates that they want. For the first time in several years, core markets that have the best shopping centers are seeing vacancy rates hit near bottom. When you have a supply and demand curve that shows little supply coming online, but tremendous demand, rental rates are inevitably going to climb quickly. We are seeing this happen in core markets – they are pre-recession high. Retailers who were focused on doing two-for-one consolidations, closed underperforming stores, spent money on stores they know could perform in 2009 and 2010, are now flush with cash and are looking at primary trade areas for their expansions. Retailers are talking about entry into secondary and tertiary markets – now that is retail growth.
GlobeSt.com: Are you seeing transactions in the secondary and tertiary markets, and who are the people buying those properties?
Killman: In the first quarter of 2013 $8.2 billion in of retail properties transacted in the United States. There are fewer sales in secondary and tertiary markets, but it's right around the corner as the market comes back. Despite the slowdown, the retail pipeline remains robust and the sector with tremendous pent up demand for core properties. Interest rates are still incredibly low, and will be low for the foreseeable future compressing cap rates. As retailers eye new markets for expansion, developers will get some confidence back and realize that they can buy value-add properties in those markets for a fraction of what they pay in a core market. We expect private equity and institutional investors will continue to eye grocery-anchored strip centers in core markets and single tenant properties, and may venture into secondary and tertiary markets.
GlobeSt.com: You've grown JLL's West Coast retail platform by adding brokers in that area and Hawaii. What started driving that growth?
Killman: The genesis of the growth was to transition our historically national retail platform into a more locally operated platform. We still operate on a national level as the nation's largest third-party management firm, but local market clients created a need for on the ground, local-market knowledge and experts. We've hired people in San Diego, Orange County, Los Angeles and Seattle to boost our presence on the West Coast, and our Hawaii operations just brought in a five new members to support their growth. Hawaii is a great insulated market that has a very finite amount of commercial real estate – It's a market where you know everybody and all of the players in it.
Thinking about the rest of the West Coast, venture-capital money is pouring into high tech, biotech and research and development sectors, creating a strong cornerstone for strength. There's just a tremendous amount of growth!
The benefit we are seeing is an increase in disposable income – the markets are more expensive to live in than say, Kansas City, but your relative income is much higher. We're seeing a lot of new redevelopments in urban markets or the future greenfield markets that are focusing on food and entertainment, two sectors that can't be duplicated on the Internet! Theater groups are getting tighter, smaller and more nimble, and restaurants remain one of the hottest retail categories. Retailers that create real, super-high customer touch points, and an experience you can't get from the Internet will be the survivors.
Want to continue reading?
Become a Free ALM Digital Reader.
Once you are an ALM Digital Member, you’ll receive:
- Breaking commercial real estate news and analysis, on-site and via our newsletters and custom alerts
- Educational webcasts, white papers, and ebooks from industry thought leaders
- Critical coverage of the property casualty insurance and financial advisory markets on our other ALM sites, PropertyCasualty360 and ThinkAdvisor
Already have an account? Sign In Now
*May exclude premium content© 2024 ALM Global, LLC, All Rights Reserved. Request academic re-use from www.copyright.com. All other uses, submit a request to [email protected]. For more information visit Asset & Logo Licensing.