GlobeSt.com is providing wall-to-wall coverage of ICSC's RECon show in Las Vegas May 19-22. Retail Ticket will provide coverage of the event through the end of May, featuring pre-event articles, live video interviews on site and post-conference analysis.
NEW YORK CITY-On Sunday, RECon, the world's largest retail real estate convention begins in Las Vegas. It's host is the International Council of Shopping Centers, and Michael Kercheval took some time to discuss what to expect this year. He touched on what to expect attendance wise, some things that might be different at this year's show and the state of the industry and consumer.
GlobeSt.com: Where is attendance at compared to prior years? How is that shaping up?
Michael Kercheval: The advance registration has been running significantly ahead of last year. That's been a pretty good indication that we're going to have more people there. This week we are still running significantly ahead, and we always get a large number of on-sites. Clearly, it would be almost impossible to have less than last year. I'm guessing that we'll bring in 35,000 people through the doors. That is less than we had in those peak years, when there were about 50,000 people. Most of the trail-off in that group has been the bankers. But we have more companies exhibiting this year than ever before, though they're not sending as many people. In terms of the health of the industry, that is actually a very good sign. It speaks to the productivity of the industry. The recession was painful, but it did leave everyone with significantly greater productivity. Rather than sending out 75 people, companies might be sending out 35 and being more efficient with their time. On Wednesday, the leasing mall is open, and it used to be that you could roll a bowling ball through it and not hit anybody. People are telling me they are booked all through Wednesday. They're being wiser with the management of their time and more efficient. There are 20% fewer people, but they can then have 20% more time there to do the same amount of work, and it can be less expensive. Attendance numbers will be a post-recession high, with a record number of exhibitors.
There is also a lot more interest from outside of the United States. We have shopping-mall exhibitors from China and Europe who are major players there but have not focused on RECon in the past. Now they see it as an opportunity to get known in the market and to find retailers to take back to China and Europe. They are also looking for partners in this country since there's not much new development here. These firms are engaged in a lot of new development, whether it is Central Europe, China or other parts of Asia. There is a significant presence of non-West firms on the developer side that we have never seen before. We're also seeing a large number of non-US retailers. What we're hearing is that there are groups coming from South America looking for opportunities and retailers from Europe that have maxed out over there, and the US is one of the few strong economies in the world.
GlobeSt.com: Has the loss of some of the anchor tenants in the leasing mall like Simon Property Group and Westfield freed up space for other companies to exhibit?
Kercheval: Some of our exhibitors said, when it first happened, that it was a nice thing because they could get appointments with the retailers. The reality is, relative to the total amount of square feet, it's more of an emotional thing than an actual thing. Their presence or absence really makes very little difference in terms of the space that's occupied. I know that a lot of their people have appointments over at the leasing mall. I think it's just a matter of time when it makes sense to get everyone reconsolidated again. And we could probably make space to continue to grow the show and reconfigure things. But when you have someone coming over from Europe and they hear that Simon is not in the leasing mall, the first comment is: “Why not?” Then the second comment is: “That's great.” They see it both ways. It certainly raises their profile and gives them an opportunity to get appointments.
GlobeSt.com: What new programs do you have for retailers right now?
Kercheval: The retailers right now in the US can't find space. We have sessions that help them rethink how they could put a 7,500-square-foot store into 5,000 square feet and how they could change the usage of their space and how they could be retrofitted into existing space to get into a market that they want to get into where nobody's building anything. Also, department stores aren't opening many new stores, yet they have fairly large staffs. So there's a shift in training internally in companies from new development to value creation and asset management. A lot of the sessions are talking about that. Life is not over when you're not opening 100 new stores a year. Life is beginning because you're adding value to the assets that you already have. Showing how you can do that is a big part of what's happening at RECon.
GlobeSt.com: You have a continued emphasis on your Special Interest Group sessions. What is driving that?
Kercheval: This was originally a convention for shopping center owners, and when they were there they decided to do deals. The shift went away from the convention and educational programs to doing deals. When the recession hit, people still needed to go out there so they could stay in contact, but they weren't doing deals. So suddenly you had people out there looking for something more than sitting around in their leasing booth with no meeting. That was in 2009 and 2010. We decided to take some non-compete time on Sunday to run some educational sessions that are narrowly focused on specific groups. We started with women and how they could get ahead in our industry, and then we added retailers and other sectors. Now people are going out there with their companies specifically so they can attend those sessions on Sunday. We also have RECon Academy, which is another reason to bring your staff out and get more return on investment in addition to doing work at the leasing mall booths. That's something which will continue to grow. The old-fashioned concurrent sessions, where you have four people sitting on a panel talking about their companies in front of a withering audience – those things are going to start to disappear. If companies want to promote themselves there are better ways to do that than sitting on a stage, so we're trying to provide those venues. For the audience, there are better ways to get information than in those sessions. We're starting to work that into the mix already.
GlobeSt.com: Are there any other things that members have asked for that you have implemented this year?
Kercheval: Last year we introduced the Marketplace Mall. That was very popular for the people who went there. Now people who didn't go there were hoping that we were going to do it again. The big difference was that it's free to get in there. Our history was that the exhibitors pay very little money, and you're paying to go meet with the exhibitors in the leasing mall. The Marketplace Mall doesn't follow that model. The exhibitors pay for their stand, but anyone can go in free. For exhibitors, that has created something very interesting, and that will grow. For the attendees, it's nice, because while we might have 35,000 or 40,000 people registered with badges, the City of Las Vegas tells us that there are probably another 30,000 to 40,000 people who go out there who don't register for the show. You're now tapping into that and exposing products and services to that group.
GlobeSt.com: Everyone has been pretty upbeat about the industry for the most part. How do you see the consumer going forward in the face of economic uncertainty?
Kercheval: There's growing enthusiasm for our industry. We're starting to see new homes being built, and whenever you build new homes, there is usually retail that follows. That has not happened in the last couple of years because there weren't any new homes, and in the areas where they were being built, there was no credit to build new retail. Now there is credit available at very low prices, and you have these home expansions. The consumer is seeing their wealth recovered from the recovery of the stock market, which has a very powerful impact on their spending. Consumer confidence hasn't risen as much as the Dow Jones, but spending is more reflective of that wealth reflect. Home values are coming back. In the job market, there are little anecdotal signs that there is lower unemployment and there are new jobs out there. And savings rates are trending down to more normal levels. Credit was available, but it was tight. Now that credit is available and a little easier to get, and the interest rates are at historical loans, whether it is for borrower credit or from a developer perspective. You probably have another 24 to 36 months where without doing anything you could ride an upward trend from all of these factors. It would take something very catastrophic to derail it.
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