WASHINGTON, DC-To hear respondents to The Real Estate Roundtable's recently-released Sentiment Index tell it, it's not the capital markets that are the problem--it is the lack of deals.
"Attractive acquisition opportunities continue to draw interest from many bidders, though pre-existing pools of capital compete for a relatively small pool of deals," said one respondent.
"The abundance of equity capital has steered investors toward secondary markets and assets—they are looking for yield wherever they can get it," said another.
And according to yet another respondent:
"People say there is a wall of capital, which is true, but I think that capital for the private side is a lot more selective than others will let on. It is a tedious and difficult process; no one wants to make mistakes."
In an interview with GlobeSt.com last week, Roundtable CEO Jeff DeBoer discussed the issue of interest rates--and when and how they will rise--as it relates to commercial real estate finance now.
That issue, however, is just one piece making up the complex picture that is commercial real estate finance these days. There are, in short, other factors driving the capital markets. Lack of deals, for example, is a big one as many survey respondents expressed the need for more buying opportunities to balance supply and demand in this environment.
Asset valuations are yet another piece that must be analyzed and weighed. The survey participants also see a significant improvement in asset values this quarter compared to one year ago, and a majority believe values will increase further next year. Eight-two percent of respondents say asset values in Q2 are "somewhat better" or "much better" than one year ago, versus 74% who answered the same way in Q1.
However, there is no escaping the looming specter f rising interest rates: respondents worry that asset value increases have been driven primarily by inexpensive capital. One respondent said, "In terms of overall real estate asset valuations, it is starting to feel a bit bubbly out there. The big question is what happens when banks start pulling back on their expansionary money policy."
Maybe, sooner than we would like, lack of deals will no longer be the problem – because the pendulum has swung back to the dearth-of-capital side.
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