ELMWOOD PARK, NJ-Although more than 3 million square feet of new retail space is in the near-term pipeline for the state, only about 445,000 square feet is coming online this year, according to Marcus & Millichap's second-quarter report.
Northern New Jersey will get an added 190,000 square feet. Central New Jersey's inventory will expand by 160,000 square feet and South Jersey will gain approximately 95,000 square feet by the end of 2013, according to M&M's Elmwood Park-based analysts.
The pipeline is swollen by 2.9 million square feet of retail planned at the American Dream Meadowlands project (formerly Xanadu) in East Rutherford. Triple Five, the developer for that project, says it will break ground by the end of the year – but challenges still remain, as the New York Jets and Giants football teams filed suit on Thursday over their objections to the impact on traffic flow at their adjacent stadium.
Meanwhile, M&M is sticking by a prediction that overall retail vacancy will fall to 7.6% by the end of this year and that asking and effective rents will rise slightly.
Over the last 12 months, a number of large leases in Morris and Bergen Counties were signed; yet, overall vacancy in the state actually rose in the first quarter, to 8.2%:
- In Northern New Jersey. where L.A. Fitness and 24 Hour Fitness took a total of 100,000 square feet off the market, vacancy rose, by 60 basis points to 7.4%. Asking rents rose 0.3% to $27.03 per square foot.
- In central Jersey, vacancy was also up, to 8.9%. Rents rose to $21.59 per square foot.
- South Jersey did better in Q1, as vacancy dipped 30 basis points to 9.5; but rents dropped 0.2 percent to $17.91 per square foot
Over the past 12 months, 645,000 square feet was added in northern New Jersey, increasing retail inventory by 1.5%, according to M&M.
In central New Jersey, supply grew by 500,000 square feet – just 0.6% - in the last four quarters. However, another 2.1 million square feet is under construction, including Edison Towne Square, a 1-million-square foot power center being developed at the former Ford Plant in North Middlesex.
There is more than 4.6 million square feet in the planning stages for central Jersey, M&M reports.
South Jersey gained a mere 40,000 square feet of retail space in the last 12 months, increasing supply by only 0.1%. About 100,000 square feet is being constructed, while 3.9 million square feet is planned for the region, most of that in Gloucester County.
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