NEWPORT BEACH, CA-One of the more visible government agencies at the recent RECon show in Las Vegas was San Bernardino County. And for good reason. The County, which was a GlobeSt.com Thought Leader during the month surrounding the convention, has a lot going on in the retail real estate sector all over its vast geographic area. Nelson Wheeler, a partner at locally based Strategic Retail Advisors and an expert on the County, recently spoke to GlobeSt.com's Ian Ritter about the developments taking place in the County and its overall retail climate.
GlobeSt.com: Has the market recovered enough to see larger, multi-anchored shopping center developments?
Nelson Wheeler: It has. We're not seeing the same amount of development, of course, that was going on pre-recession, but the County has four significant multi-tenant shopping centers that are either redevelopments or new product. In north Upland, there is the third phase of Colonies Crossroads, at the southeast corner of Campus Avenue and Highway 210. That's going to include Nordstrom Rack, Toys “R” Us, Babies “R” Us, T.J. Maxx, Golfsmith and Beverages & More! Thenthere is another significant redevelopment project at the Mall of Victor Valley, at the northwest corner of Bear Valley Road and Interstate 15, in Victorville. That includes a new Macy's, a new Forever 21 in an old Mervyns box, Dick's Sporting Goods and significant remodels of the common area. There is a third project being planned called Mountain Grove, in Redlands, being built by Majestic Realty Co., and that's just north of their current Citrus Plaza. It will be about 450,000-square-feet. While the tenancies are probably not quite yet ready for announcement, there is significant anchor-tenant interest to take that off for a possible late 2014 or early 2015 opening. Finally, the fourth project, while maybe not quite on the foreseeable horizon, is the redevelopment of the old Broadway department-store box at Montclair Plaza, at the southwest corner of Central Avenue and Interstate 10, in Montclair.
GlobeSt.com: Is there pent-up demand for certain merchandise types that weren't constructed before the recession which are now underway?
Wheeler: In the housing boom of the early part of the last decade, we saw a lot of communities begin construction. They basically started from nothing. Then infrastructure and housing starts were going at a break-neck pace. We then had an extremely abrupt halt to that. So while shopping-center developments might have been planned based on the continuation of the waves of housing that were getting built, it had that abrupt stop. Now that housing starts are back in a very big way in San Bernardino County, there is a need to serve those new communities. For example, Target has four stores either as relocations or newly planned units. And these are 135,000 square feet to 180,000 square feet. Walmart has five stores that are under construction or have just opened, and there are six more planned. That's 1.2 million square feet for the planned ones and one-million square feet for the ones that are opening. There is a reason that Target and Walmart are making those huge capital investments in San Bernardino County. They see it as very viable long-term spot.
GlobeSt.com: So if those two retail powerhouses are making that kind of investment, we can expect to see growth continue in the area?
Wheeler: Walmart and Target make bets like this thinking of a 40- or 50-year horizon on those capital infusions. The housing starts and their continuation will be a little more volatile, with highs and lows through the 50 years that Target and Walmart are making their investments, but the wind is certainly at the back of the housing market right now, and therefore the consumer as well.
GlobeSt.com: What are some characteristics of San Bernardino County that make it a desirable place to do business?
Wheeler: The infrastructure in place is stellar, and the expansion of that infrastructure is a great place to be investing: in housing, jobs and company expansions. It has a very active county government. And while the County doesn't necessarily influence entitlements in incorporated cities, it sets the tone for what the temperament of business friendliness is for the county, and it's very proactive. The real-estate development business is volatile and risky, and when there is a tone of cooperation, that mitigates risk. That is very favorable to real estate developers, particularly with all of the other inter-agencies that aren't as predictable. It's also a diverse region, both geographically and demographically. It's physically the largest county in the country, so there are a wide range of housing products and growth opportunities for all sorts of real estate plays, from medical to distribution to manufacturing and housing. And with housing comes retail right behind it.
GlobeSt.com: Are there any retail assets in the County that that sets it apart from other areas?
Wheeler: There are two that are noteworthy. One of them is Ontario Mills, about 15 years in the making. It has a 50-to-60-mile drawing radius, which you can't say for other shopping centers in Southern California, except maybe South Coast Plaza and possibly Rodeo Drive. Even the Third Street Promenade in Santa Monica doesn't drive that kind of radius. It's a unique shopping experience in Southern California that happens to be in San Bernardino County. And to the north there is Victoria Gardens, in Rancho Cucamonga, which is another regional mall that takes a more upscale merchandising mix. It's unique perhaps not because of its tenancies, but the design of that project. , It was built as an open-air shopping center, thanks to our friendly Southern California climate, and we hadn't seen one of those in a long time.
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