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Part 1 of 2

SAN FRANCISCO-“Real estate is no longer a dirty word; it is a well-performing asset class.” So said David Lynn, EVP and chief investment strategist of Cole Real Estate Investments, during a discussion about the CMBS market here yesterday at the ULI Real Estate Finance and Investment conference. “Real estate is much safer than it has been for some time and for the borrower and lender, it is an attractive environment.”

The CMBS market, Lynn said, was scarce two years ago, but is now much more broadly available. “There is a real need for it and investors want the yield ... CMBS makes sense.”

It makes sense, Lynn continued, particularly in the secondary and tertiary markets where there has been a financing gap, but it doesn't necessarily make sense in the primary.

The conference brought together both providers and users of capital to explore key trends that are driving successful real estate investing today. Lynn was a panelist on the opening panel, moderated by Dean Schwanke, SVP of Urban Land Institute.

The panel began with a reviewed ULI's recent consensus forecast, a three-year forecast for 27 economic and real estate indicators. The survey was undertaken from March 4 to march 25, 2013.

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Among other things, the consensus predicted that: Real GDP Growth will continue getting better; showed inflation will increase up to 3% by 2015; cap rates are expected to fall this year and then rise up to 6.2% next year; transaction volume is expected to rise; strength continues on the industrial and warehouse side, with rental rates expected to grow; rental rates for office is expected to grow for the next three years; hotel occupancy rates will continue to rise over the next few years; and home price increase are expected to be stronger, “well above inflation.”

Richard Sinkuler, partner and global real estate markets leader of Ernst & Young,commented on the consensus' GDP growth prediction, noting that there are still a lot of headwinds if you look at things globally. “There is still some uncertainty and that uncertainty is our enemy because it is still making people who make decisions say, 'oh well, we will wait and see.' And it is four years now of a slowdown.”

But Andrew Nelson, director of research and strategy at Deutsche Asset & Wealth Management, thought there is a better picture to paint. Sure, the public sector is very much standing in the way right now, he said, but the private sector is recovering nicely. “It is a normal kind of reaction to such a severe downturn. It is kind of a bamboo thing where it takes several years underground before it is going to shoot up. We are seeing some positive things like exports increasing and job growth, for example.”

Lynn added that there are more positives than negatives. “The private sector is in relatively good health. Exports are increasing for the US. We are becoming a major energy power and that isn't insignificant…it is helping our economy is a variety of ways,” he said. “Consumers have been deleveraging over the past several years and are in better shape. They are beginning to re-lever again.”

But the big worry is still the jobs picture, which Lynn said “has been anemic.” It is a new normal, said Lynn, but it is a pretty good environment for real estate. “You are seeing fundamentals improve in all sectors. The debt part of this has been very attractive. The economy is gradually improving and the cost of capital is very attractive.”

Check back with GlobeSt.com for part two of this panel discussion, where the panel touches on the 10-year treasury, and on a majority of returns stemming from income.

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Natalie Dolce

Natalie Dolce, editor-in-chief of GlobeSt.com and GlobeSt. Real Estate Forum, is responsible for working with editorial staff, freelancers and senior management to help plan the overarching vision that encompasses GlobeSt.com, including short-term and long-term goals for the website, how content integrates through the company’s other product lines and the overall quality of content. Previously she served as national executive editor and editor of the West Coast region for GlobeSt.com and Real Estate Forum, and was responsible for coverage of news and information pertaining to that vital real estate region. Prior to moving out to the Southern California office, she was Northeast bureau chief, covering New York City for GlobeSt.com. Her background includes a stint at InStyle Magazine, and as managing editor with New York Press, an alternative weekly New York City paper. In her career, she has also covered a variety of beats for M magazine, Arthur Frommer's Budget Travel, FashionLedge.com, and Co-Ed magazine. Dolce has also freelanced for a number of publications, including MSNBC.com and Museums New York magazine.