CHICAGO-E-commerce has excited a great deal of interest among commercial real estate investors in the past few years. Unlike most sectors of the economy, which mostly show a slow, steady growth, e-commerce has been almost explosive, and will create investment opportunities with distribution centers in key markets across the country, according to a new report by Erik Foster, an Avison Young principal based in Chicago, and practice leader of the firm's Industrial Capital Markets Group.

Online sales pushed past $225 billion in 2012, an increase of 15.8%, according to data from the U.S. Census Bureau, Foster points out, and adds that the “consumer research firm Forrester is projecting online retail sales will reach $370 billion by 2017,” or a 10% annual growth rate, “and continue to outpace the growth of physical retail stores.” The sector has seen more than 151-million-square-feet of new development just since 2010. In 2012 alone, Amazon, one of the biggest players in the sector, opened nine more distribution spaces in North America totaling 8.45-million-square-feet. The company now has more than 33-million-square-feet of distribution space.

Investors who want to take advantage of the industrial demand for e-commerce space have two main options—investing in major industrial markets, such as Los Angeles, Indianapolis, Dallas and Columbus, or looking to dense, urban markets, such as those serving New York City or Chicago, where e-commerce companies see opportunities to expand into same-day delivery. Among the primary characteristics consistently found in these markets, Foster says, are locations along transportation corridors, and a good supply of modern warehouse and distribution facilities featuring the ceiling heights, bay sizes and other physical features that can accommodate e-commerce tenants.

“E-commerce is a strong economic engine that is touching many different industries,” Foster says “For commercial real estate owners and investors, there is great opportunity to capitalize on this growth in industrial assets and generate strong returns for many years from this asset class.”

Among the other key findings in the report:

  • U.S. pension funds are under-allocated in commercial real estate and the distribution segment offers prime opportunities that fit their investment criteria.
  • Distribution centers with a higher percentage of parking will have a stronger appeal to e-commerce companies, as they have higher ratios of employees per square foot.
  • Since 2000, occupied distribution space has increased by 86.2 percent, from 459.3 million square feet to 855.1 million square feet at the end of Q1 of 2013, according to CoStar.
  • Retailers' bricks and mortar square footage will continue to show minimal square footage growth, possibly impacting investor's returns within the retail product sector.

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Brian J. Rogal

Brian J. Rogal is a Chicago-based freelance writer with years of experience as an investigative reporter and editor, most notably at The Chicago Reporter, where he concentrated on housing issues. He also has written extensively on alternative energy and the payments card industry for national trade publications.