WASHINGTON, DC-Ken Simonson believes that once burned, twice shy. The chief economist for Associated General Contractors of America has made optimistic predictions before based on early-year job returns, only to see the promise, as he says, “fizzle.” So he's unwilling, given recent job returns, to make glowing predictions.

And Stephen E. Sandherr, the association's CEO, clearly agrees: “With current conditions, one misguided regulation and one missed investment opportunity could cost a lot of hard-working construction workers their jobs.”

The locally based association's analysis of June market conditions reveals that an equal number of states gained and lost construction jobs (see page 3). “Job gains and losses were quite different last month from the patterns in the past several years as some lagging states—notably Nevada—added workers, while former high-flyers, such as Texas, had layoffs,” says Simonson. “On a year-over-year basis, construction employment has increased in more than two-thirds of the states, but nearly all states lag their pre-recession peaks for construction jobs.”

Simonson tells GlobeSt.com that the split shows exactly how “fragmented and fragile” the recovery has been in terms of construction. Despite the improvements over the past two years, the recovery is “by no means a clean sweep of improving conditions, and I expect that to be the story for the rest of the year and maybe into 2014.”

He does say that gradually, more states are trending upward, but caution kicks in before he makes a definitively positive prediction.

So in what sectors is he seeing the biggest gains? Obviously, residential is a main driver. “More states are showing a pick-up, particularly in residential construction, both single- and multifamily,” says Simonson.

Growth is also occurring in “oil- and gas-producing states,” he says, naming North Dakota, Texas, Oklahoma and Louisiana “These are states that are getting activity around the drilling or the transportation and processing of additional finds of natural gas and oil.” With the influx of population around these boom areas, related housing and retail construction is also active. “That extends to parts of Pennsylvania, Colorado and a few other states.”

Warehouse construction is also on an upswing, thanks especially to “companies like Amazon trying to place fulfillment centers closer to their customers,” says Simonson. And of course, the Panama Canal expansion is also firing port expansions.

Hotels are also logging job growth. Given the post recessionary return of travel, more hotel chains “are renovating, and we're starting to see new construction in selected areas.”

The office market remains weak in terms of development, Simonson tells GlobeSt.com. “A few markets are growing headquarters facilities,” he says, pointing to Houston, Silicon Valley, San Francisco and Seattle.

But the list stops there. “In other major cities you'll see one project at a time,” he says. That includes Manhattan, which is being dominated by a few major mega-projects. For the most part, companies that are adding headcount are accommodating them in existing space. "

In spite of all of the negativity,” Simonson concludes, “construction in the US will do better in the second half of 2013. I'm keeping my fingers crossed.”

So which states are winners and which are losers? Quoting from the association's report:

• “In June, 23 states and the District of Columbia added construction jobs, while 24 states shed them. Nevada had the largest one-month percentage increase (5%, 2,500 jobs), followed by North Dakota (4.2, 1,300) and Iowa (4%, 2,600). Illinois added the most jobs in June (5,400, 3% percent), followed by Washington (4,100, 2.9%), Iowa and Nevada. There was no change in Alaska, New Hampshire and Oklahoma.

(For State Employment Data by Rank, click Here.)

• “Connecticut experienced the sharpest decline in construction employment from May to June (-3.4%, -1,900), followed by West Virginia (-3%, -1,100) and Vermont (-2.9%, -400). Texas lost the largest number of jobs between May and June (-8,500, -1.4%), followed by Pennsylvania (-3,600, -1.6%).

(For Employment Data By State, Click Here.)

• “Over the past 12 months, 36 states added construction jobs. Wyoming had the largest 12-month percentage increase (10.4%, 2,200 jobs), closely followed by Louisiana (9.7%, 12,200) and Arizona (9.7%, 11,100). California added the most jobs (32,200, 5.5%), followed by Texas (31,400, 5.4%), Louisiana and Florida (12,200, 3.6%).

(For Changes From Market Peak, Click Here.)

• “Among the 14 states with construction-job losses between June 2012 and June 2013, South Dakota lost the highest percentage (-6.2%, -1,300), followed by Kentucky (-5.2%, -3,500) and Indiana (-5.1%, -6,400). Indiana had the largest number of jobs lost, followed by Ohio (-3,900, -2.2%), Kentucky and Pennsylvania (-3,500, -1.6%).

• “Two states—Louisiana and North Dakota—set new construction-employment records in June, but most remain far below their pre-recession peaks. Despite its strong showing in June, Nevada's construction employment last month was still 64% below the June 2006 peak. Similarly, construction employment in Florida and Arizona last month was 49 percent below the June 2006 record highs, in spite of big one-year gains.”