NEW YORK CITY-New York's multifamily sector saw a sharp uptick in activity in the second quarter, according to a new report. In other research, while sales across the city were seen as being on the rise, Manhattan activity dipped down.
The New York City multifamily market saw a 50% increase in transactions during the second quarter, with a 20% rise in buildings sold and a 63% jump in the dollar volume of those trades. In total, New York City saw 156 transactions comprised of 220 buildings totaling $1.6 billion, compared to the first quarter 2013, which saw 104 transactions comprised of 183 buildings totaling $967 million in gross consideration.
Ariel Property Advisors president Shimon Shkury tells GlobeSt.com that the rise is due to several factors, including interest rate concerns. “People think interest rates will either stay the same or go up, so buyers and sellers alike want to make sure they're transacting right away so they can lock in today's great interest rates. They're both working very hard to bring deals to fruition because they don't think today's low rates will last forever.”
A slow first quarter also played a role, Shkury says. “A lack of inventory in the first quarter created pent-up demand for multifamily assets, which when combined with higher prices led to a substantial increase in activity in the second quarter.”
Shkury expects the high-level of activity in New York's multifamily market to continue throughout 2013, he says. “We believe the market in the remainder of the year will build on this momentum and that rising interest rates also may push more owners to sell versus refinance.”
Analysts at Eastern Consolidated aren't quite as bullish. Multifamily sales volume declined from $2.9 billion in the first quarter to $1.6 billion in Q2, a recent report by the firm states. It wasn't clear why the two firms report such different findings. The author of Eastern's report, chief economist Barbara Byrne Denham, wasn't available at press time. However, the firm does admit that its first quarter statistics were heavily weighted by two large transactions: the sale Archstone portfolio, which involved 10 Manhattan multifamily properties; and the sale of 162 condominium units at Mercedes House, 555 W. 53rd St.
And Eastern Consolidated is optimistic about at least one borough. “Brooklyn's 2013 multifamily sales volume has already climbed to 45% of the total 2012 multifamily volume,” according to the firm's report. “ In Manhattan, multifamily sales volume thus far in 2013 has only climbed to 34% of the total 2012 volume. Volume and prices are poised to climb higher as the momentum in Brooklyn has clearly grown.”
Ariel reports similar results for Brooklyn. “For the second consecutive quarter, Brooklyn led the New York City submarkets in the number of transactions with 49 sales consisting of 69 buildings. This represents a 63% increase in transaction volume. Dollar volume also was strong in the second quarter, with over $270 million in sales, a 96% increase from the first quarter.” For the two quarters combined, prices were up compared to the first half of 2012, with cap rates dropping nearly 100 basis points to 6.21% from 7.17% and the average price per square foot rising to $214 from $189.
Denham doesn't envision a potential rise in interest rates having much of an effect on commercial real estate overall.
“A slight shift in yield should not have a significant impact,” she says, “given the presumption that higher interest rates suggest a stronger U.S. economic recovery characterized by increased job growth.”
Want to continue reading?
Become a Free ALM Digital Reader.
Once you are an ALM Digital Member, you’ll receive:
- Breaking commercial real estate news and analysis, on-site and via our newsletters and custom alerts
- Educational webcasts, white papers, and ebooks from industry thought leaders
- Critical coverage of the property casualty insurance and financial advisory markets on our other ALM sites, PropertyCasualty360 and ThinkAdvisor
Already have an account? Sign In Now
*May exclude premium content© 2024 ALM Global, LLC, All Rights Reserved. Request academic re-use from www.copyright.com. All other uses, submit a request to [email protected]. For more information visit Asset & Logo Licensing.
Rayna Katz
Rayna Katz is a seasoned business journalist whose extensive experience includes coverage of the lodging sector, travel and the culinary space. She was most recently content director for a business-to-business publisher, overseeing four publications. While at Meeting News, a travel trade publication, she received a Best Reporting award for a story on meeting cancellations in New Orleans during Hurricane Katrina.
