Fast food workers around the country are rebelling at wages bordering close to the minimum wage and the fast food companies threaten to automate more of their systems and eliminate workers so their message to workers is take it or leave it.
Then you examine some numbers provided by the New York Times over the weekend—most workers who earn between $7.25 and $10 an hour (about 66% of the total) are employed in three industries—retail, leisure/hospitality (including food service) and education or health services. And these industries are the ones generating much of the nation's jobs growth today. And according to the Economic Policy Institute 20% of American workers or approximately 28 million people earn less than $10 an hour.
So unemployment hovers in the mid 7% range, technology stunts wage growth, and companies can earn bigger profits by using fewer people, and scrimping on what they pay them.
So of course, claims are made about the unfairness as CEO compensation escalates in return for increased profits off the backs of the labor force. And CEOs fight back, arguing they are only increasing shareholder value, which is their job. Okay, you pick your side.
But are these lowering wage pressures good for the real estate business? Sure in New York CEOs and offshore entrepreneurs buy the high end residences. And the same crowd may seek out luxury hotels and resorts. High Street retail may also benefit on the handful of High Streets around the nation?
Obviously, when new jobs are clustering in low wage industries and fewer people can command credit, because they are legitimately bad risks—you have to wonder where is the juice for the rest of the economy to increase sales at typical malls or to keep boosting home prices once pent up demand and institutional speculation run their course. And notice the lagging jobs growth in industries that might fill more office buildings—the big banks and other financial institutions continue to be very careful about increasing hiring. We've written about law firm cut backs and accountants are just lucky for now that politicians really do not want to reform and simplify the tax code. Even favored apartments should expect to experience cresting rents—lower and middle wage earners, their bread-and-butter, cannot afford major increases when their earnings are so squeezed.
In my soundings, many real estate investors continue to search for yield, unsatisfied with decent though flaccid single-digit returns. And search they do, going up the risk scale as they contemplate mostly unattainable performance. Certain one-off projects will score, but the average development in the average market or worse will look more marginal in due diligence when underwriters realize tenants and customers just have less in their pockets.
And even as unemployment tracks slowly lower over the next few years—at least we hope so—if the wage and benefit structures continue to suffer at the expense of trying to keep corporate profits up who in the end will be able to spend money on what companies are trying to sell?
And then what happens to shareholder value and your real estate investments? Stay tuned.
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