NEW YORK CITY-Even with a lagging performance by the financial services sector—historically one of the city's top performers—New York fared far better than other parts of the nation in the first half of the year. So says a new report by Ken McCarthy, chief economist at Cushman & Wakefield, which does point to one soft spot in New York's economy for the first six months of the year: office.
That dip is due to the dropoff by financial services but the fact that the city as a whole continued to perform well without this sector bodes well for the future, he says. “When the financial sector gets back on track, it will augment the City's other sectors leading to stronger growth and a healthier office market.”
Top performers in the city through June included tourism and technology. Since the recovery began, employment in the tourism sector has increased by more than 20%, the report says, and the sector has accounted for nearly a quarter of all the jobs created in New York since November 2009, when employment bottomed.
In the past four years employment in technology and many other creative industries has increased but the exact increase is hard to gauge, he says. “We do not have adequate statistics on employment in technology.”
But there is one good anecdotal measure of the sector's strength, he adds. “The strong growth that the local economy has experienced in the professional and business services category is largely a result of technology/creative industries employment.”
On the slow growth side, office-using employment matched the rest of the country in 2011 and 2012, and in the start of 2013, it has barely increased, rising by 2,200 jobs. However, McCarthy advises, “Much of this weakness is attributable to the data for June, which saw a 6,100 job decline in office-using employment, the largest one-month drop since the recession ended. This number will be revised later this month, so it needs to be interpreted cautiously.”
Meanwhile, the financial services sector continues to suffer. The sector has lost roughly 2,000 jobs over the last two years. Prior to that, I August 2011, employment in the financial services sector reached its high point in the current cycle, up nearly 18,000 jobs from the bottom.
Financial services employment accounts for 11.1% of all the jobs and 35.3% of all the office-using jobs in New York, compared with 5.8% and 27.1% nationally, respectively.
The city's good economic health despite financial services' fall is a good sign of vitality, McCarthy says. “It indicates that the city's economy has become more diversified and no longer relies as heavily on financial services as in the past.”
Still, he notes, “Historically, New York has not had an economic boom without strong growth in financial services and for the economy to regain the strength seen earlier in the recovery, the city will need to see stronger growth in financial services employment.”
However, there is much to be upbeat about. Asking rents have increased roughly 10% from a year ago (excluding the newly completed 51 Astor Place, which is asking some of the highest rents in the market), McCarthy says, and net effective rents are up roughly 50% since the 2009/2010 bottom.
And there's hope for the lagging portions of New York's economy, he adds. “As the national economy accelerates in 2014 and 2015, the financial sector also will expand. Already, industry profits are improving. In the first quarter of 2013 financial sector profits were up 35% from the 2011 low. As the financial sector improves, the local economy will once again outperform the nation.
Similarly for the office market, McCarthy states, “As the local economy picks up steam, we expect to see the office market move out of the slow growth mode that has characterized activity and pricing. Over the next couple of years, we expect to see a tightening of the office market in Midtown and Downtown as large users engage the market and seek to take advantage of the current lull. This is likely to lead to tighter office markets and rising rents across Manhattan over the next several years.”
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