LOS ANGELES-Over the past several months one sentiment has remained constant—change is imminent. With the 10 year Treasury climbing over 100 basis points since May, many investors have had to adjust their investment strategy yet again. For the larger institutions that utilize creative debt strategies, interest rate movement has had a noticeable impact. Some deals have gone dead while others have needed additional equity or major restructuring.
For the smaller, single-tenant NNN deals, interest rate movement hasn't created too much turmoil. This is due in part to many of these assets being purchased all cash through 1031 exchanges or with capital that has been sitting on the sidelines. Demand remains strong for credit tenant investment as buyers seek a stable return. Thus far into 2013, sales of single-tenant properties have increased roughly 10% year-over-year, and the average cap rate remains around 7%.
The retail sector as a whole is very healthy. Overall nationwide vacancy is below 7% and net absorption remains positive. Quoted rental rates at the end of 2nd quarter 2013 were at $14.50, which is a .21% increase from a year ago. One of the biggest trends to keep an eye on is new development which has remained quiet thus far. Lenders are still very apprehensive to book construction loans after the fallout from the previous cycle. Lack of new supply will continue to put downward pressure on vacancy and rental rates could rise as a result. This too could help keep cap rates stable, all things considered.
Although consumer confidence is at its highest point since 2007 and an overall economic recovery is in place, the equity markets have a looming uncertainty. The Dow Jones Industrial Average has been labeled over-bought by many and could be facing its own correction. Some predict a free fall to 10,000 or even 6,000 points. If that happens, investors may flee to hard assets which would further strengthen the case for cap rate stability. While cap rates might rise, I don't see a major correction in the immediate future. Investors historically have been willing to trade return for safety, and I expect that to be the case moving into 2014. Retail will continue on its own road to recovery but expect some bumps along the way.
Ryan Tomkins is director of Faris Lee Investments, a leading national real estate investment advisory firm, comprised of three integrated business platforms; Faris Lee Investment Banking, Faris Lee Capital and Faris Lee Advisors. The views expressed in this column are the author's own.
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