Sometimes it seems to me I am living in that TV show The Dome, because so many in the markets seem to not be aware of what is going outside their own little world. Syria may seem to be over as an immediate crisis, but it is not over and is only festering and will develop into a much worse crisis in time. Obama has acted in ways that even fairly middle of the road policy experts who have served presidents of both parties have said they have never seen a president act so weak and uncertain as Obama has over the past week. As many have stated, Iran and their subsidiaries, as well as Russia and China have watched as the United States withdrew from strong world leadership. That is extremely dangerous. The bad guys in all those countries are really tough and ruthless. Assad in his interview with Charlie Rose stated clearly that he is prepared to do whatever is required to win. Those are his words. Principals are irrelevant to these guys. Power is all that matters. Killing lots of people is simply what you do to retain power. It is that simple.

While Obama will start a major effort this week to change the subject and start to blame the Republicans for a potential impass and government shutdown, and they will get blamed for making the economy unfair, unequal, and all those campaign rhetoric phrases, the reality is we are headed for potential serious problems and a major mess. Putin will continue to play Obama who will occupy his time on the fiscal mess, while Putin and Iran manipulate Syria into a win for Assad and a major loss for the western world. We continue to close in on the red line Israel has set for Iran and it matters not what Obama is doing. Israel will not shirk its existence. It will attack at some point and now is much more likely to act alone and thus drag in the US. It is clear Obama has no leadership or guts and so Israel will do whatever it feels it must and drag him along just as Putin led him down the primrose path.

Congress may try to pass a continuing resolution to push out the real decisions on the budget and debt ceiling. Obama says he will not give an inch. When was the last deal you did where you could say this is my position and you get nothing at all. Never. Either you compromised or the deal died. There is no dead deal for the budget of the US. There has to be a deal. Politics is supposed to be the art of compromise not the foolish this is ti or die positions of the tea party and Obama, Harry Reid and Patty Murray. The tea party people are their own worst enemy and they are not smart enough to recall they lost the chance for the Republicans to control the Senate. The really scary thing is to listen to Obama and some of the tea party members in Congress and to remember these are the people who are supposed to be running the government.

My point of all of this is don't breathe a sigh of relief that Syria is resolved and we can all just go back to business and deals. A historic very bad thing has occurred in the Syria fiasco where the dynamics of the geopolitical calculus of the world has dramatically changed for the much worse and much more dangerous. The situation in Washington has gotten much worse and less prone to good decisions and compromises. The sequester will continue most likely. It will hurt real estate in Washington and Virginia and other places dependant on the government. Obamacare starts in two weeks and objective people strongly believe it is worse than a train wreck. When the unions come out publicly and blast it, you know there is major trouble ahead. The Democrats cannot win elections without the unions, and if they defect then it becomes a free for all in Washington. Business will hold back hiring because nobody really knows how Obamacare will play out other than badly.

Then the Fed will chime in later in the week. Hard to know what that will be.

Housing is turning down, banks have just laid off around 10,000 people in their combined mortgage departments. That is a pretty good indicator the housing recovery may have a short life for awhile. Good for multi. Retail sales are flat to down slightly. Labor force participation is at the lowest in 35 years. If people are not working, and rates are rising, it is hard to see how housing continues to surge upward. It is hard to see the demand for more retail development. It is hard to see how the hotel industry will continue to improve. They are already finding it very hard to grow group business and to raise rates.

I continue on my pitch to be very careful and not ignore the world beyond your nose. There is very possibly a lot more bad coming to your local area no matter where you are. That is especially true for New York if DeBlasio is elected. .We will return to the days of Dinkens, and that is terrible for real estate values. He will undo all of the wonderful things done over the past 20 years to make New York to top city in the world and that will be the end of what you think is such a safe investment in trophy buildings in New York.

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Joel Ross

Joel Ross began his career in Wall St as an investment banker in 1965, handling corporate advisory matters for a variety of clients. During the seventies he was CEO of North American operations for a UK based conglomerate, and sat on the parent company board. In 1981, he began his own firm handling leveraged buyouts, investment banking and real estate financing. In 1984 Ross began providing investment banking services and arranging financing for real estate transactions with his own firm, Ross Properties, Inc. In 1993 Ross and a partner, Lexington Mortgage, created the first Wall St hotel CMBS program in conjunction with Nomura. They went on to develop a similar CMBS program for another major Wall St investment bank and for five leading hotel companies. Lexington, in partnership with Mr. Ross established a hotel mortgage bank table funded by an investment bank, and making all CMBS hotel loans on their behalf. In 1999 he formed Citadel Realty Advisors as a successor to Ross Properties Corp., focusing on real estate investment banking in the US, UK and Paris. He has closed over $3.0 billion of financings for office, hotel, retail, land and multifamily projects. Ross is also a founder of Market Street Investors, a brownfield land development company, and has been involved in the acquisition of notes on defaulted loans and various REO assets in conjunction with several major investors. Ross was an adjunct professor in the graduate program at the NYU Hotel School. He is a member of Urban Land Institute and was a member of the leadership of his ULI council. In 1999, he conceived and co-authored with PricewaterhouseCoopers, the Hotel Mortgage Performance Report, a major study of hotel mortgage default rates.