NEW YORK CITY-The third quarter was a slow one, with average asking rents and vacancy rates largely flat, according to Cushman & Wakefield, thanks to continued drag from the financial services sector as well as a traditional stoppage of activity due to the summer months. Negative absorption was found in all but one submarket.
But sometimes, analysts said—shockingly—the numbers aren't everything. “Vacancy rates and asking rents don't tell the story of Manhattan leasing velocity,” said Ron Lo Russo, president of the New York tri-state region during Cushman's third-quarter press briefing Thursday in Midtown Manhattan.
“There's a lot of strength in the pipeline,” he noted. A total of 71 tenants currently in the market that have over 10,000 square feet of requirements will have leases expiring in 2014. Together that accounts for a total of 3.2 million square feet.?Manhattan leasing activity overall has increased nearly 10% year-over-year. Additionally, there were a total of 48 transactions in the quarter, with base taking rents of $100 per square foot or more, completed thus far in 2013. In comparison to last year, 35 transactions were completed for all of 2012.
Still, finance's sluggishness is taking a toll on the office market, noted chief economist Ken McCarthy. “Financial services went on hold in 2009 because of the debt ceiling, the Eurozone crisis and it's still in wait-and-see mode. Growth in employment across all sectors fell or stagnated because of the finance industry.”
Yet, looking forward, he is optimistic. “I never underestimate the ability of the financial services segment to reinvent itself. And we expect stronger growth overall in 2014 and 2015.”
And there is much to be optimistic about, Cushman analysts said. “Midtown South class-A asking rents have soared to a record high of $74.55,” said David Rosenbloom, executive director. In fact, according to Cushman & Wakefield, “for the second consecutive quarter, the Midtown South class-A average asking rent exceeded Midtown Class-A average asking rent, which was $72.55."
Added Josh Kuriloff, executive vice chairman, “Midtown South rents being higher than Midtown's was unheard of five years ago. This is a transformational moment.”
Midtown had some boast-worthy results too. For the year on the whole, there's been healthy new leasing activity in the market, with a 17.6% increase year-over-year. And “Sixth avenue is back,” Rosenbloom noted. The Sixth avenue/Rockefeller Center area has seen 1.8 million square feet of new leasing take place so far this year, compared to 1.9 million square feet for all of 2012.
But as the only submarket to post positive absorption in the quarter, Downtown continues its domination. The area's prices simply can't be beat. “Lower Manhattan is New York's value play,” said Robert Constable, EVP.
Including renewals, leasing activity in Lower Manhattan totaled 1.6 million square feet, bringing it above the 10-year quarterly average of 1.5 million square feet. The vacancy rate is now 10.9%, down from 11.6% last quarter. The average asking rent closed the quarter at $46 per square foot, an increase of 15.5% year-over-year. The class-A asking rent totaled $50.71 per square foot, which is up 12.2 percent year-over-year. “The fourth quarter will be strong, possibly the strongest we've seen since early 2012,” predicted Constable.
And the city's retail sector—particularly Downtown—is going gangbusters, noted Alan Schmerzler, executive director. Of the 10 Manhattan retail corridors that C&W tracks, eight saw double- digit percentage growth in ground floor average asking rents from last quarter. Lower Manhattan, which was one of those corridors, spiked by nearly 30 percent.
“Downtown has exceeded all expectations and has established itself as a 24-hour a day, live, work and shop destination,” said Schmerzler.
Meanwhile, capital markets fared well, despite external pressures. “Rising interest rates had very little impact on New York,” reported Steven Kohn, president, equity, debt and structured finance.
A total of 159 transactions have been completed so far this year, with an average deal size of $165 million. That compares to 309 transactions done in all of 2012, with an average deal size of $86 million. Including deals under contract, Kohn noted, third quarter volume is up 39 percent year-over-year. Corporations and owner-occupiers have been active sellers in 2013.
Asserted Lo Russo, “We no longer need to be 'cautiously' optimistic. The one direction of Manhattan real estate is up, and there's no better time to be confident—extremely confident—in the long-term picture for real estate on the island of Manhattan.”
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