NEW YORK CITY-From the government shutdown, the debt ceiling and rising interest rates to a changing mayor and dramatic shifts in which submarkets are growing, the commercial real estate industry—both nationally and around town—is going through a time of great upheaval, according to a number of speakers at Real Share New York on Tuesday in east Midtown. Much of the change bodes well for the sector, but some of it comes at the industry's peril.
“We have this impasse and I think it's just a precursor to October 17th, when we won't be able to refund our debt,” asserted William Kahane, president and COO, American Realty Capital. “Our investors are frightened of the result, they played in the market from 2008 to 2012, and they're once burned and twice shy.”
It's an issue the market appears to be ignoring but shouldn't, noted Jeffrey DeBoer, president and CEO, the Real Estate Roundtable. “[The Federal government] is playing with fire and we all think they can't burn the house down but this is a new game, so I hope everyone is paying attention.”
Interest rates were another hot button issue. While most of the industry believes they have nowhere to go but up, some RSNY speakers took an alternative view.
“It's hard to see them rising much through 2015,” said Mark Grinis, global leader, real estate investment fund services, Ernst & Young. “They're going to be very closely watched by the Federal Reserve, which is going to protect the work it's done for the last three years.”
Added Michael Maturo, president, RXR Realty, “If you look at interest rates this morning, they're completely unchanged across the board, so the market seems to feel [the debt ceiling crisis] will pass; because the consequences of it not happening would be catastrophic.”
Meanwhile, participants were upbeat about the local market. “It's an astounding time in New York,” asserted David Schectman, executive managing director, Eastern Consolidated. “We're closing a deal at 4 E. 46th, the sale price is about $1,080 per-square-foot, which is close to a per-square-foot record on the block. It's a Korean buyer and he signed the contract in 24 hours.”
In fact, the city is so hot, industry participants are seeing investors drift into other areas. “A lot of Manhattan investors are looking to the boroughs,” said Robert Knakal, chairman and founding partner, Massey Knakal. “But a lot of the investors in Manhattan are addicted to it, and David [Schectman] and I are just in the business of providing them with clean needles.”
Yet there's uncertainty in the city due to the impending Mayoral election. Industry leaders are working to remain optimistic about doing business with City Hall. “Bill DeBlasio recently said at an industry breakfast that he's socially progressive but fiscally conservative, and I said 'my members are the same so I suspect they have a lot in common,'” said Steven Spinola, president, REBNY.
The city's future also depends on the lagging financial services sector, but at least one of the city's brokerage firms expects a turn around. “Financial firms will reinvent themselves, they're flush with cash right now, so they'll look to lower costs and increase density,” said John Santora, president and CEO, global corporate occupier and investor services, Cushman & Wakefield. “People went from 225 to 150 square feet per employee and they're talking about 100 square feet in five years.”
But what part of the city will gain the most tenants? That was a subject of much debate. “Downtown we're up 25% in leasing activity,” said Tara Stacom, executive vice chairman, Cushman & Wakefield.
The exclusive leasing agent for the World Trade Center, Stacom is particularly excited over newer inventory. “We're seeing a lot of technology, advertising and media tenants who've been pushed out of Midtown South, and job growth in those sectors is positive. The growth of the West Side has already been documented, and there's a lot happening with the East Side waterfront too.”
Disagreed Colliers International's Michael Cohen, president, tri-state region, “I see the Downtown story as a tale of two cities. There's an oversupply of steel and glass, the true renaissance is happening in the older buildings where space is being absorbed and rent has increased 10-15%.”
But looking ahead, others have still has higher expectations. Arthur Mirante, principal and tri-state president, Avison Young, forecasted a rent increase of 20 to 40% over the next four to five years, both in Midtown and Downtown. Stacom predicted a continual rise in the next few years, with rents possibly jumping from $60 per square foot to $80 Downtown.
“Our saving grace is going to be technology and media companies,” Stacom said. “These users are more prone to space efficiency and they're the ones drawn to the new space. It has an impact.”
Yet there's uncertainty in the city due to the impending Mayoral election. Industry leaders are working to remain optimistic about doing business with City Hall.
“Bill DeBlasio recently said at an industry breakfast that he's socially progressive but fiscally conservative, and I said 'my members are the same so I suspect they have a lot in common,'” said Steven Spinola, president, REBNY.
The city's future also depends on the lagging financial services sector, but at least one of the city's brokerage firms expects a turn around. “Financial firms will reinvent themselves, they're flush with cash right now, so they'll look to lower costs and increase density,” said John Santora, president and CEO, global corporate occupier and investor services, Cushman & Wakefield. “People went from 225 to 150 square feet per employee and they're talking about 100 square feet in five years.”
But what part of the city will gain the most tenants? That was a subject of much debate. “Downtown we're up 25% in leasing activity,” said Tara Stacom, executive vice chairman, Cushman & Wakefield.
The exclusive leasing agent for the World Trade Center, Stacom is particularly excited over newer inventory. “We're seeing a lot of technology, advertising and media tenants who've been pushed out of Midtown South, and job growth in those sectors is positive. The growth of the West Side has already been documented, and there's a lot happening with the East Side waterfront too.”
Disagreed Colliers International's Michael Cohen, president, tri-state region, “I see the Downtown story as a tale of two cities. There's an oversupply of steel and glass, the true renaissance is happening in the older buildings where space is being absorbed and rent has increased 10-15%.”
But looking ahead, others have still has higher expectations. Arthur Mirante, principal and tri-state president, Avison Young, forecasted a rent increase of 20 to 40% over the next four to five years, both in Midtown and Downtown. Stacom predicted a continual rise in the next few years, with rents possibly jumping from $60 per square foot to $80 Downtown.
“Our saving grace is going to be technology and media companies,” Stacom said. “These users are more prone to space efficiency and they're the ones drawn to the new space. It has an impact.”
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