NEW YORK CITY-Manhattan's solid retail sector performance showed no signs of slowing down in the third quarter, and it's unclear when rents for such space might fall, according to CBRE retail analysts, who appeared Wednesday at a press briefing in their Midtown East offices. The Fifth Avenue corridor between 49th and 59th streets “pierced the $3,000 per square foot line, and it jumped to $3,150 in the third quarter,” according to CBRE's fall 2013 Manhattan retail report, released today at the firm's third quarter 2013 Manhattan Market Research Media breakfast in its Midtown office.
And there is still room for many changes and for growth, said retail brokers Andrew Goldberg, vice chairman; EVPs David LaPierre, Richard Hodos and Susan Kurland. “With the pricing disparity of above ground space, we'll continue to see landlords convert office space to retail,” said Goldberg. “Up and down Fifth and Madison avenues, it's tough to find a ground-floor only store, and we're starting to see this in Soho too. When retail tenants are paying $1,000-$3,000 a foot for the ground floor and the average office rent in Midtown South is over $62 for second floor space, there's a pretty big delta. People are learning how to operate multi-floor stores because success stories abound.”
Added LaPierre, “The width of a store's space is only so big and retailers want a large façade, so they're starting to go vertical. That's really the only way for these retailers to evolve.”
Others are paying close attention to upcoming developments, like Brookfield Place, Westfield World Trade Center and Hudson Yards. “Brookfield is almost fully tenanted and there's a good roster,” said Hodos. “The space is starting to be handed over to tenants for build out. As for Westfield, it will be oversubscribed, with high street retail in the corridors and fashion retailers in the oculus [the central portion of the development], among others.”
Westfield as a rule doesn't announce tenants until leases are signed but Hodos hinted that Apple and Tiffany are closely eyeing the project, while J.Crew and Victoria Secret are also expected to show interest, along with other retailers that were part of the original World Trade Center.
Still, Hodos sounded one cautionary note. “What's going on in Washington, DC is a severe concern for retailers because they don't know how to plan, short-term or long-term.”
Meanwhile, Kurland said, “Retailers will go to Hudson Yards. The project is almost creating a city, so long-term the residents, office workers and visitors will need the retail.” As for the type of stores being targeted for the site she said, “I believe [the Related Cos.] is talking to every segment.”
In reviewing Manhattan's office market, Peter Turchin, EVP, noted that the real estate market, which is reputed to be slow in the summer, actually has performed well historically. “This year was particularly busy in the Sixth Avenue/Rockefeller Center submarket, which has made a leasing comeback after a soft 2012.
In Midtown, Q3 leasing activity reached 3.63 million square feet, slightly above the market's five-year quarterly average of 3.51 million square feet. The FIRE sector [finance, insurance and real estate] accounted for the quarter's top three deals, led by Capital One's 209,000-square-foot lease at 299 Park Ave. The submarket had its first quarter of positive absorption since the third quarter of 2012, thanks to above-average leasing activity and several space withdrawals.
Year-to-date absorption remained negative, but far below the levels recorded during the same nine-month period in 2012. Midtown's average asking rent crossed the $70 mark for the first time since January 2009, rising $0.68, or 1%, during the quarter to $70.19 per-square-foot.
In Midtown South, Q3 leasing activity was 6% below the market's five-year quarterly average of 1.02 million square feet and 20% below the previous quarter's activity. Renewals and expansions accounted for four of the five largest deals, led by Beth Israel Medical Center's 99,000-square foot renewal at 111 Eighth Ave. The submarket saw 50,000 square feet of positive absorption during the third quarter, marking the second consecutive quarter of positive absorption. Still, year-to-date net absorption remained negative in the quarter. Midtown South's average asking rent rose $0.77, or 1%, during the quarter to an all-time high of $64.21 per square foot.
Downtown again posted healthy numbers, with Q3 2013 leasing activity outpacing the five-year quarterly average of 1.04 million square feet by 47%. That performance marks Lower Manhattan's 10th straight quarter of above-average leasing activity. Year-to-date leasing activity grew to 3.99 million square feet, 22% ahead of the same nine-month period in 2012. Four of the top five transactions were new leases, led by HHC's 221,000-square-foot deal at 55 Water St.
The third quarter's strong leasing activity Downtown, coupled with space withdrawals, surpassed new availabilities brought to market during the quarter, creating significant positive net absorption. However, year-to-date net absorption remained negative, in keeping with 2012 levels. The average asking rent was stable, inching down just $0.17 per square foot during the quarter.
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