CHICAGO—GlobeSt.com reported yesterday that, according to a new study by Jones Lang LaSalle, landlords in half of the US cities with high concentrations of top law firms now have the upper hand in lease negotiations. In Chicago, the JLL researchers found what was, at least on average, a neutral market. But change could be on the way. The firm believes that Chicago, where 38 of the top law firms have offices, will become a landlord-friendly market by next year, before switching to a tenant-friendly market by 2016.

However, Steve Steinmeyer, the managing director with JLL's Tenant Representation Group, and who specializes in representing law firms, cautions that while the study provides a useful overview of 41 US markets, each city has unique subtleties. A law firm looking for a class A space in the hot West Loop area, for example, especially if they want high-rise views, will “find a relatively tight market with very few options.” On the other hand, a firm that needs only 10,000-square-feet and does not mind less quality or perhaps an East Loop location, “well, that's an altogether different story.”

And the predictions of the study might not come true if the economy keeps undergoing shocks. “We hope the government will figure out how not to step on its own feet.” But assuming the economy does not receive any shocks, “there will be a tightening of the market for the next year or so, but when all the new supply comes on it will swing back a bit.”

The Chicago CBD will start to loosen as projects like Hines' River Point tower at 444 W. Lake St. and John Buck's 151 N. Franklin St. open for business. Major law firms like McDermott Will & Emery and DLA Piper LLC have already decided to anchor the Hines tower, for example, and their moves will open up big blocks of space at 227 W. Monroe and 203 N. LaSalle. Furthermore, Steinmeyer believes “demand exists for at least one more major building to get kicked off.”

And all of this construction will help set Chicago apart from most other US cities. Of the 41 markets studied by JLL, Chicago is the only one they predict will be tenant-friendly, meaning less pressure to pay higher rents or give up lease concessions, in both 2016 and 2017.

Still, whatever the ups and downs, “Chicago does not swing with the volatility of a New York or San Francisco; there's just not the same huge valleys and peaks.” For one thing, the city's economy remains quite diverse, without an over-dependence on one industry. And unlike Manhattan and San Francisco, Chicago is not landlocked, giving developers more options to create new office submarkets. Steinmeyer points to the sparkling new offices filling the Fulton Market area. “Five years ago, most people would not have known where the heck that even was.” He adds that although few law firms will leave the CBD for a former meat-packing district, plenty of high-tech, design and creatively-focused firms will move, “and create holes in the more traditional market.”

But the current tendency among many corporations to shrink their footprints by ditching single offices for more efficient and collaborative spaces, thereby loosening up whatever market they're in, has not really taken hold in the US legal world. “They have not evolved in the way they use space; you don't see that as an emerging trend.” And Chicago lawyers may be even more reluctant than coastal firms to embrace the trend, Steinmeyer says, since the relatively lower cost here decreases the pressure to change. “I think it's easier to justify that in the Midwest. It allows those less efficient but enjoyable practices to continue; everybody likes to have their own office.”

Some Chicago law firms have shrunk their office footprints by switching to single-sized offices or adding interior offices, but these modifications have been modest compared to changes instituted at other downtown companies.

I'm not optimistic that there will be much movement on that,” he adds. Changes to improve efficiency “are not revolutionary in any sense; other industries have been looking at this for decades.” But many firms worry that radical changes will hurt recruiting with prospective associates.

If the law firms want to tilt the landlord-tenant balance further in their direction, the question must be, “which markets will truly take the lead in transforming the use of space for increased efficiency? It's hard to imagine they won't eventually gravitate that way.”

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Brian J. Rogal

Brian J. Rogal is a Chicago-based freelance writer with years of experience as an investigative reporter and editor, most notably at The Chicago Reporter, where he concentrated on housing issues. He also has written extensively on alternative energy and the payments card industry for national trade publications.