NEW YORK CITY-Two mega-development sites, a resurgent residential market and ongoing government infrastructure projects will drive area construction up to record levels this year and continue to spike through 2015, according to a new report by the New York Building Congress. The New York City Construction Outlook 2013-2015—prepared with support from the New York Building Foundation—promises boosts in activity across numerous sectors, leading also to an increase in construction employment.

“Since 2000, activity has tripled (not factoring in inflation), because today the city is an attractive place to invest in, to work, live and visit,” NYBC president Richard Anderson tells GlobeSt.com. “All of that is leading to construction activity, whether its in hotels, higher education institutions or other areas. That's what's so reassuring, [the construction increase] is a lot of everything.

The report estimates 2013 construction spending to reach $31.5 billion, a 14% increase from 2012 when construction spending reached $27.6 billion. Construction activity is expected to continue gaining momentum in the coming years—growing to $33.4 billion in 2014 and then $37 billion in 2015.

If the 2013 forecast is achieved, total construction spending would eclipse the previous high of $31.1 billion, reached in 2007—at least in nominal terms. With the effects of inflation factored in, 2013 spending would actually be about 15% below the 2007 peak in volume of work delivered.

Still Anderson says, construction activity is healthy, it just looks different than when it was on the rise during pre-recession periods. For example, while government spending is slipping, going from 58% to 40% of the total construction spend, “it's not stopping, just slowing down, and the private sector is picking up in spending.

“The New York City construction market is alive and well,” Anderson declares. "It's diversified, with many areas of strength and no real areas of weakness.”

And If 2015 construction spending matches the forecast of $37 billion, the volume of work produced would be right in line with numbers at the height of the building boom, even factoring in inflation.

Non-residential construction, which includes office space, institutional development, sports/entertainment venues, and hotels, is forecast to reach $10.3 billion in 2013, up from $8.9 billion a year ago. Spending in this sector is expected to climb even further in the coming years—to $10.8 billion in 2014 and $13.6 billion in 2015.

The sector is being buoyed by current and anticipated additional work at the World Trade Center and Hudson Yards, as well as a number of large hotel projects and a series of significant ongoing expansions by New York City's educational, healthcare and cultural institutions.

“Back in 2003, government officials unveiled ambitious master plans for both the World Trade Center and Hudson Yards. These proposals were predicated largely on billions of dollars in upfront government investments, which would pave the way for private sector investments,” says Building Congress chairman John Dionisio. “After a decade, those ambitious visions and upfront capital investments are paying off.”

Government spending, which includes investments in mass transit, public schools, roads, bridges, and other infrastructure, is forecast to increase from $13.4 billion in 2012 to $13.7 billion in 2013 before dropping back to $13.5 billion in 2014 and then $12.8 billion in 2015.

“As Mayor Michael Bloomberg's term winds down, I think city officials have lost a little enthusiasm, plus there's a high debt service right now,” says Anderson. “They're leaving it to the next Mayor.”

The Metropolitan Transportation Authority is projected to spend about $3.7 billion annually between 2013 and 2015, which is in line with the MTA's recent annual expenditures, though well below its peak of $5.1 billion in 2008. The third biggest government spender, the Port Authority of New York & New Jersey, is expected to hold steady at $1.8 billion annually throughout the forecast period.

Hurricane Sandy's wrath also has led to the promise of construction and development in the coming years, though exact plans are still to be determined. “Water and sewage facilities need to be redone, and almost every agency needs to reassess their capital improvement plan. This will generate a lot of activity.”

The residential construction sector—which declined dramatically in the aftermath of the recession, is continuing its rebound. Residential construction spending doubled between 2009 and 2012 and is expected to double again by 2015.

What does all of this mean for construction jobs? The NYBC projects the addition of 4,200 new construction jobs in 2013—up to 119,100 from 114,900 in 2012. The forecast anticipates a total of 123,400 jobs in 2014, and 129,700 in 2015.

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Rayna Katz

Rayna Katz is a seasoned business journalist whose extensive experience includes coverage of the lodging sector, travel and the culinary space. She was most recently content director for a business-to-business publisher, overseeing four publications. While at Meeting News, a travel trade publication, she received a Best Reporting award for a story on meeting cancellations in New Orleans during Hurricane Katrina.