HOUSTON-Take a look at office commercial real estate reports coming out of Houston, and they pretty much say the same thing. Namely, the demand for space continues thanks to the region's position in energy and that large blocks of contiguous space are, by and large, disappearing.
The StudleyReport for Q3 2013 is reporting similar news: It points to an increase of space availability (17.6%), an increase in asking rents ($24.38 per square foot, a 3.8% increase quarter-over-quarter) and overall leasing of 4.3 million square feet, up 11.6% from the last quarter.
According to both the report and to Steve Biegel, Studley's executive vice president and Houston co-branch manager, the activity boils down to the energy industry. "The overwhelming majority of what's going on is either directly related to the energy business, or that serve the energy business," Biegel says.
This has led to an almost giddy view of commercial real estate, with buildings going north, especially in The Woodlands and Energy Corridor submarkets. Such buildings, in fact, are close to 100% leased, even before they come out of the ground. The unavailability of large blocks of contiguous space are also pushing rents, especially in class A buildings. But the aspect to remember is that Houston is a large area with many submarkets. "I think you're seeing speculative development in the suburbs," Biegel tells GlobeSt.com. "I'm not sure you'll see any of the proposed buildings downtown get built on a speculative basis."
There are, of course, exceptions – Hines just announced it would start site-clearing work on its speculative 1-million 609 Main at Texas. And billionaire Jeff Hildebrand has begun demolition on the former Macy's, with plans to develop an office building on that site. However, "in terms of buildings proposed, capital sources will require pre-leasing to start them," Biegel says.
Additionally, building in the CBD is different from building in the Energy Corridor. "The lead time is longer on a downtown building because they're bigger and harder to stage," Biegel points out. "It takes longer from the start of construction to opening, and the window during which the market can turn against you is that much larger."
The logical question here is, what happens should the energy industry implode? Biegel, who has been involved with commercial real estate locally for more than 30 years, points out that the fundamentals driving what he dubs the "huge market correction of the mid-1980s" aren't in play this time around. At that time, he pointed out, a lot of speculative space went north in anticipation of oil at prices exceeding $100 per barrel, something that never happened.
Today, "if you look at the market fundamentals, the infrastructure investments being made in the Gulf of Mexico, the 15-year projects, world energy production and demand and the shale play, on an intellectual analysis, we're in good shape," Biegel says.
Biegel makes this acknowledgement in light of the fact that he, and other veteran commercial real estate brokers continue waiting for the bottom to drop out, for no other reason than they lived through the 1980s downturn. Still, "we're already in the longest sustained positive market in my 32-year career," Biegel says. "Looking out ahead, there isn't anything negative to see."
But suppose the energy sector does see a slowdown in demand or pricing? Thanks to lessons from the 1980s, developers are being more cautious. Biegel points out that if things were to slow down, buildings planned would remain on the drawing board, rather than actually being bult. "Those building under construction that do have speculative space in them, that total space wouldn't push vacancy in the market by much, maybe by 2% to 4%," he says.
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