LOS ANGELES—What's keeping the West Coast multifamily markets hot? The hot tech market, lack of supply and high demand for apartment units. It's a familiar story, and it isn't expected to come to an end any time soon. That's what the brokers participating in the “Senior Brokerage Leadership Speaks” panel shared with the 2,000-plus attendees at the at the RealShare Apartments 2013 conference, held here last Thursday.
Moderated by Bob Hart, TruAmerica Multifamily's founder, CEO and president, the session brought together some of the biggest dealmakers in the apartment sector to discuss the hot-button issues in the brokerage market. They included Kenny Dudunakis, senior partner at Hendricks-Berkadia; Greg Harris, EVP of investments at Institutional Property Investors, a division of Marcus & Millichap; CBRE executive vice president Laurie Lustig Bower; Kitty Wallace, EVP and national multifamily director for Colliers International; and David Young, managing director at Jones Lang LaSalle.
When asked why the Seattle/Puget Sound area has been so successful, Young said simply, “Our billionaires stay at home,” referring to the likes of Bill Gates, Jeff Bezos, Steve Ballmer and Paul Allen. “They invest at home and create jobs. Most of these new workers are young and have good jobs, they make a good salary. This creates demand for multifamily units.”
Plus, Young noted, median home prices and the income-to-rent ratio is cheaper in the Seattle MSA as compared with San Francisco and Los Angeles.
A development slowdown also played a factor, added Dudunakis. “Every year until 2008, we got accustomed to building 200,000 to 300,000 units in Seattle, and that all stopped in 2009.” Construction is starting to come back, but it still hasn't reached the levels of the prior peak.
Moving south, Kitty Wallace pointed out that there's also a shortage of supply in many Inland Empire markets. “The lack of space and the demand for product is pushing prices up,” she said. And in some markets like Santa Monica, “renters love micro units. People like to be in transit-oriented centers.”
Job growth has been uplifting despite the economy. “Economic concerns haven't stopped investor appetites,” said Young. “Between 2012 and 13, the promise of jobs hasn't disappointed.”
In Southern California/Metro Los Angeles area, commented, Laurie Lustig Bower, “we've seen an increase of appetite from developers.” There was much construction in 2007 and 2008, with over 6,000 and 7,500 units delivered, respectively, before a gradual decline set in, she said. “That's faded over the years.”
According to Lustig Bower, The top developers in Los Angeles, by the number of units completed or slated for completion in 2012 and 2013, are Meta Housing Corp., Jerry Epstein's Shores, Equity Residential and Alliance Residential, which collectively delivered over 2,300 units.
Construction cranes have also been busy in Orange County, where development is reviving after stagnating in 2010 to 2011, following two booming years, said Lustig Bower. She reported that Irvine Co. alone completed 2,371 units in 2012 and 13, followed by UDR with 787 units, AvalonBay Communities with 358 and Inland American with 350.
She also mentioned that condos are making a comeback in Metro Los Angeles. “The average price in 2007 was about $600,000, and 2013 prices are nearing that,” she said. “That's why more developers are considering condo development these days.”
Market dynamics weren't the only trends discussed by the panelists. The business of brokerage itself has been changing as well. Specifically, the practice of working on teams has proven beneficial. This approach, concurred the brokers, has made the art of dealmaking more efficient and faster, which works out in clients' best interests.
“A team approach is definitely necessary,” stated Young. “Deals are getting bigger and more complicated, so you need more people in the soup.”
Brokerage firms themselves are also growing in size. The next trend, Young said, is that size matters. Large, one-stop-shop kind of firms like CBRE and JLL will become the norm. “Brokerage houses are all going to consolidate going forward,” he declared. “Some boutiques will survive, but others won't.”
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