As each day goes by we learn that Pelosi was right, until they passed it and we see what is really in the bill, we don't know the disaster it holds for so many people. It is hard to imagine they screwed this up so badly and it just gets worse and worse. This is what happens when policy and politics drives a project instead of solid business practices. Being in the mobile app business myself, I know how you need to test and make certain even the simplest piece of a program is. What seems simple is often filled with unknowns, and it takes time and intense work to make sure things really work as intended. It is clear the contractors were told to just do it and release it, despite telling the government people it is not working. They just could not face the failure and the disruption to the policy drive by Obama and Pelosi to go live even if it did not work. Obama claims he did not know. If that is true he should be fired as CEO. This was his signature policy of his presidency and his legacy and he never asked for constant updates????? Nobody has been fired??? It is like when Bush said his FEMA rep was doing a good job on Katrina.

So now what and what difference does this make to you. Now what is, despite the best efforts of Ted Cruz and his band of bozos to completely blow it for Republicans in 2014, a potential disaster for Republicans, the conversation has shifted to where the Dems are in a panic. It is likely that over 15 million people and maybe more will lose coverage and the replacement when you take deductibles and premiums, is more costly. In several states there is no choice. There is only one carrier. Millions are getting screwed. Many on company plans are being dumped onto exchanges. By November the hue and cry will be drowning out everything even if they extend the dates. The administration is now screwed since there is no good fix the way this mess has been devised and rolled out. Between the Tea Party nuts, and the left wing effort to force everyone into single payer government controlled healthcare, I have decided to start the None Of The Above party. Mark Zandi is right. If they all would just go home for five years, we would all be much better off and the deficit would be under control.

What will happen is retail and hotels, in particular, will be affected by the mess as will thousands of small companies. It is a disrupter. It is a confusion. It means major uncertainty. None of that is good for the economy and adding jobs. It is bad for the middle and working class. It means that what might have been a nice recovery will be much less than it should have been. Nothing else will get done in Washington for months. Then it is election season. Tax reform is unlikely. Whatever comes of this latest group of partisan political games will amount to nothing. The economy in 2014 will not likely move ahead much above where it is. Development will be much slower than it might have been. Rent growth will be less than it could have been. Hotel revenue will be less due to continued slower than normal growth in group business. Retail sales will remain constrained as the uncertainty over Obamacare impacts most people who now lost confidence and are not spending as they might have been.

Obama talks about jobs, but he is killing the economic growth with Obamacare. And more and more regulation. The result is you need to be a long term investor, and not assume you can really forecast anything with any certainty. We have only seen part of the Obamacare disaster so far. There is much more to come. Wait until many cannot find a doc because now they are suddenly on Medicaid which many doctors refuse to take. Older docs are retiring instead of investing on the computers and staff needed to comply with all the new regs, and then to get nil reimbursement. There are going to be too few docs in a few years in many parts of the country. You have to be a masochist or dedicated to medicine to become a doctor today. Soon we will have large numbers of doctors from India and few others. If you are into medical office you better have a major group or hospital as your tenant or you will be in problems when individual docs and small groups cannot make it.

While all this is happening keep your eye on Iran. The deal blew up because Obama was willing to twerk to get anything done. Israel and the Saudis and French said, not happening. Iran is not going to do a deal that works, so keep watching the Mideast.

I continue to put forward my belief that 2014 is going to be messy and so don't go out on the limb. Focus on current cash flow.

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Joel Ross

Joel Ross began his career in Wall St as an investment banker in 1965, handling corporate advisory matters for a variety of clients. During the seventies he was CEO of North American operations for a UK based conglomerate, and sat on the parent company board. In 1981, he began his own firm handling leveraged buyouts, investment banking and real estate financing. In 1984 Ross began providing investment banking services and arranging financing for real estate transactions with his own firm, Ross Properties, Inc. In 1993 Ross and a partner, Lexington Mortgage, created the first Wall St hotel CMBS program in conjunction with Nomura. They went on to develop a similar CMBS program for another major Wall St investment bank and for five leading hotel companies. Lexington, in partnership with Mr. Ross established a hotel mortgage bank table funded by an investment bank, and making all CMBS hotel loans on their behalf. In 1999 he formed Citadel Realty Advisors as a successor to Ross Properties Corp., focusing on real estate investment banking in the US, UK and Paris. He has closed over $3.0 billion of financings for office, hotel, retail, land and multifamily projects. Ross is also a founder of Market Street Investors, a brownfield land development company, and has been involved in the acquisition of notes on defaulted loans and various REO assets in conjunction with several major investors. Ross was an adjunct professor in the graduate program at the NYU Hotel School. He is a member of Urban Land Institute and was a member of the leadership of his ULI council. In 1999, he conceived and co-authored with PricewaterhouseCoopers, the Hotel Mortgage Performance Report, a major study of hotel mortgage default rates.