High speed rail in the United States continues to go nowhere fast… Europe, China, and Japan are laced with rail lines on which sleek bullet trains carry passengers at upwards of 200 miles an hour or even faster, not only taking pressure off congested regional air corridors and roadways, but also moving riders center city to center city (no extra time consuming road travel from airports in taxis, cars or buses). Estimated costs for California's proposed $100 billion LA to San Francisco line now meet the hard cold reality of lack of available funding. Gov. Jerry Brown cannot find the money in state coffers while the federal government won't muster much more than positive lip service from the Department of Transportation. Other proposals for a national system outlined early in the Obama administration have disappeared off the radar screen. The budget conscious Congress just will not support much more than maintenance infrastructure spending even though U.S. transportation systems—built 50 to 100 years ago--fall further behind the rest of the developed world. At the same time, most state and local governments may have the wherewithal to patch the potholes in roads from this wickedly freezing winter, but not much more.

On examination, high speed rail really only makes sense for city to city travel within 300-500 mile, high density population corridors—where trains can out-convenience driving or jet travel and attract high volume ridership. If only for money, the California line or another $100 billion plus estimated upgrade to the Amtrak system linking Washington to New York and Boston are no brainers and real necessities for inter-city 21st Century transport. In fact even today, the 80-mile per hour Northeast Acela trains carry more passengers than airlines between these cities. What would it be like to get to Philadelphia's 30th Street Station from Penn Station in New York in 30 minutes or from New York to Boston by train in 90 minutes? At the rate we're going nobody reading this will ever know.

So what's going on with news reports about "a series of public hearings scheduled in six upstate New York cities where state and federal transportation officials will discuss plans for a $45 billion high-speed rail corridor linking New York City to Niagara Falls? Today that trip consumes eight hours when you can drive in about seven or fly in 90 minutes or less. Who is kidding who—this project just will not happen. State and local pols can capture some headline grabbing attention about helping upstate's woebegone Rust Belt economy. But they will be hard-pressed to find (the $5-10 billion) dollars for new tracks that might shave even an hour or two off the long train ride. And so what's the point of even that? Talk about wasting taxpayer money on arranging for these meetings.

Besides the absence of funds, also standing in the way of California and Northeast corridor high speed rail is lack of political willpower to confront right-of-way and eminent domain issues. New modern rail lines will need to be built through heavily developed districts, forcing out businesses and scarring neighborhoods—construction could be delayed for years by various lawsuits winding through the courts.

Florida and Texas talk up high speed rail between various cities. A Portland to Seattle to Vancouver, BC line makes sense too. Where's the money? Where indeed? There will be no free ride, let alone a faster one.

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Jonathan D. Miller

A marketing communication strategist who turned to real estate analysis, Jonathan D. Miller is a foremost interpreter of 21st citistate futures – cities and suburbs alike – seen through the lens of lifestyles and market realities. For more than 20 years (1992-2013), Miller authored Emerging Trends in Real Estate, the leading commercial real estate industry outlook report, published annually by PricewaterhouseCoopers and the Urban Land Institute (ULI). He has lectures frequently on trends in real estate, including the future of America's major 24-hour urban centers and sprawling suburbs. He also has been author of ULI’s annual forecasts on infrastructure and its What’s Next? series of forecasts. On a weekly basis, he writes the Trendczar blog for GlobeStreet.com, the real estate news website. Outside his published forecasting work, Miller is a prominent communications/institutional investor-marketing strategist and partner in Miller Ryan LLC, helping corporate clients develop and execute branding and communications programs. He led the re-branding of GMAC Commercial Mortgage to Capmark Financial Group Inc. and he was part of the management team that helped build Equitable Real Estate Investment Management, Inc. (subsequently Lend Lease Real Estate Investments, Inc.) into the leading real estate advisor to pension funds and other real institutional investors. He joined the Equitable Life Assurance Society of the U.S. in 1981, moving to Equitable Real Estate in 1984 as head of Corporate/Marketing Communications. In the 1980's he managed relations for several of the country's most prominent real estate developments including New York's Trump Tower and the Equitable Center. Earlier in his career, Miller was a reporter for Gannett Newspapers. He is a member of the Citistates Group and a board member of NYC Outward Bound Schools and the Center for Employment Opportunities.