There is a potential upside to the long, terrible winter. Almost everyone has cabin fever and will run out as soon as it gets warm in two weeks and start shopping, renovating, and doing other things. Construction will resume full force. In short, there is likely to be a major surge in economic activity in March which will lift all boats. This does not mean the economy will really improve a lot, or that employment will be on a new plateau higher. It simply will mean the economy and hiring will bump up, maybe a lot by April, but the underlying issues remain and are being compounded. Obamacare is still a disaster. Obama may have made some people believe it is all going to be OK by delaying the mandates so that the expected 50-80 million policy cancellations expected will not happen this year, but they will happen the next year unless the law is permanently changed. Part time labor will continue to increase as companies work to limit their exposure. The cost to the economy will still be very material.

Raising the minimum wage is nice politics for low income and Latino workers, but it is not going to help the economy and may likely harm it as CBO predicts. Regulations, especially from EPA pour out, raising the cost of development. In New York, the DeBlasio administration seems hell bent to make the city back to the Dinkens days of higher crime, dysfunction, and harder to do business, and harder and more costly to do development of high end residential. The good news is the city has no authority over taxes and many other major items, and Cuomo and the Republicans in the State Senate will not allow much of what DeBlasio wants to do. The new Speaker of City Council is so far left, she actually makes DeBlasio seem almost centrist, so the real risk is city council will do whatever it can to implement far left rules and laws that will make development, and operations, much more difficult and costly.

Terrorism is still a huge issue, and not getting better as Clapper has stated clearly. Despite Obama saying the terrorists are in decline, reality is exactly the opposite. The chance of another major incident are increased, not decreased. This is a real risk that could be another black swan incident you just need to be prepared for. Whether it is a cyber attack, a physical incident or a suicide bomber in the subway or in a mall, the risks are probably as high as they have ever been and you need to be fully prepared if you own or manage a major asset. Better to be over prepared than under.

Lastly, the middle east is a cauldron of instability and violence. It is highly unlikely that the Iranians will ever agree to give up enrichment and shut down their nuclear operations. Obama will try to do whatever deal he can but in the end there will be none and all that will have happened is time will pass which allowed Iran to progress. Syria is far from any sort of resolution, and the ramifications of that situation are very concerning as they are breeding hundreds of future terrorists and the destabilization of the entire region.

So what does all this mean to you. Don't let economic improvement cloud your judgment that all is well. When things improve in the US in March and April, there are many things happening around the world which will impact the stability and risks which in turn will impact markets and economies. Over the years I have watched as younger players think the world is fine and now I can take risk and lever up and look how smart I am. My caution is don't forget the world around us, and real estate is an investment not a trade. In the current world, three years may be forever, and too long. We simply do not know. Be prepared for really bad things to happen unexpectedly, by staying within reasonable bounds on leverage, don't overpay as many are currently starting to do, and don't mistake better economic data as a long term change that you can assume will last for many years. Stay sensible, don't forget what we have just been through, and I can tell you one thing you can count on, it will get bad again at some point, so it is better to stay rational and moderate, and not over reach for the stars. In the end you will still be standing when other fall away. Real estate is a long term business with many cycles.

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Joel Ross

Joel Ross began his career in Wall St as an investment banker in 1965, handling corporate advisory matters for a variety of clients. During the seventies he was CEO of North American operations for a UK based conglomerate, and sat on the parent company board. In 1981, he began his own firm handling leveraged buyouts, investment banking and real estate financing. In 1984 Ross began providing investment banking services and arranging financing for real estate transactions with his own firm, Ross Properties, Inc. In 1993 Ross and a partner, Lexington Mortgage, created the first Wall St hotel CMBS program in conjunction with Nomura. They went on to develop a similar CMBS program for another major Wall St investment bank and for five leading hotel companies. Lexington, in partnership with Mr. Ross established a hotel mortgage bank table funded by an investment bank, and making all CMBS hotel loans on their behalf. In 1999 he formed Citadel Realty Advisors as a successor to Ross Properties Corp., focusing on real estate investment banking in the US, UK and Paris. He has closed over $3.0 billion of financings for office, hotel, retail, land and multifamily projects. Ross is also a founder of Market Street Investors, a brownfield land development company, and has been involved in the acquisition of notes on defaulted loans and various REO assets in conjunction with several major investors. Ross was an adjunct professor in the graduate program at the NYU Hotel School. He is a member of Urban Land Institute and was a member of the leadership of his ULI council. In 1999, he conceived and co-authored with PricewaterhouseCoopers, the Hotel Mortgage Performance Report, a major study of hotel mortgage default rates.