The economic situation in China is getting much more difficult for many companies, and the crack down on corruption is having a material impact on development as well as hotels and other areas where corrupt politicians spent their payoffs. The result is good for the US real estate business and other industries. It had been the case until recently that many Chinese developers wanted only five star hotels or big name brands. They were cashing in on the money flow that came with corruption. Those in a position to collect payoffs would dine out, go to the best hotels and take their girlfriends to the best resorts. The banks would provide unending funding for these developments and to have a major hotel as part of a mixed use project became common. When I traveled to China a year ago to meet with hotel developers, it was invariably about five start properties, and the more luxurious the more they wanted it. Financing was no problem and there was a trend away from the big brands to try to differentiate themselves. The hotels once open often did not make a real return but they were status symbols. We were there to discuss management contracts, not ownership, as ownership made no economic sense.

Now with the crackdown on corruption, there is a major pull back by the people collecting the payoffs to not be seen out flashing the money the way they used to do. The big expensive hotels and the hookers are all having a much more difficult time finding business. The money flow to the developers has dried up. The failure to understand how to best operate the luxury hotels and make money is now come home to roost.

This pull back of funding, and the rapid rise in labor costs has made it difficult for many businesses, not just hospitality, to make any profits. There has been a major move of low cost factories to other places like Sri Lanka, Vietnam and others. The huge profits machine has slowed materially in China and this, combined with the crackdown has led to many entrepreneurs looking for places to move capital.

This is all good for the US real estate industry. There has been a huge build up of capital in China which is now feeling very insecure. Corrupt politicians, developers, and many manufacturers need to get their capital out and to a safe haven. One reason EB-5 has worked is it provides a green card and a place to move cash out of the country. Young Chinese are starting to realize that maybe China is not the best place to make their future and there is a brain drain beginning to occur. These are very smart and tech savvy kids who would flock here is we would ever fix our immigration laws to allow these well educated and driven people to settle here. They would start new businesses, and they would be very productive.

For US real estate there is a growing flow which could become a flood at some point, of all of this built up capital. Not just the corrupt politicians, but more ordinary businessmen who now are not sure where things are headed and who see that the economy is not the profit machine it had been for the past several years. They are getting capital out.

This money is not going to mid America but still stays on the coasts, and the major cities, but in time it will move to other areas. It pays to start making inroads with legitimate Chinese institutions, US law firms with a China practice, and US banks who have material operations in China. It may be a long process, but over time it may prove worthwhile. Just be very careful to stay with legitimate sources like the above or you may spend a lot of time running around China and wasting a lot of time and money. The Chinese have their own cultural ways and it is different than America. But the capital is there, it is coming and some in the US will be able to take advantage of this opportunity.

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Joel Ross

Joel Ross began his career in Wall St as an investment banker in 1965, handling corporate advisory matters for a variety of clients. During the seventies he was CEO of North American operations for a UK based conglomerate, and sat on the parent company board. In 1981, he began his own firm handling leveraged buyouts, investment banking and real estate financing. In 1984 Ross began providing investment banking services and arranging financing for real estate transactions with his own firm, Ross Properties, Inc. In 1993 Ross and a partner, Lexington Mortgage, created the first Wall St hotel CMBS program in conjunction with Nomura. They went on to develop a similar CMBS program for another major Wall St investment bank and for five leading hotel companies. Lexington, in partnership with Mr. Ross established a hotel mortgage bank table funded by an investment bank, and making all CMBS hotel loans on their behalf. In 1999 he formed Citadel Realty Advisors as a successor to Ross Properties Corp., focusing on real estate investment banking in the US, UK and Paris. He has closed over $3.0 billion of financings for office, hotel, retail, land and multifamily projects. Ross is also a founder of Market Street Investors, a brownfield land development company, and has been involved in the acquisition of notes on defaulted loans and various REO assets in conjunction with several major investors. Ross was an adjunct professor in the graduate program at the NYU Hotel School. He is a member of Urban Land Institute and was a member of the leadership of his ULI council. In 1999, he conceived and co-authored with PricewaterhouseCoopers, the Hotel Mortgage Performance Report, a major study of hotel mortgage default rates.