DALLAS—It's no secret that the commercial real estate industry in Texas has been on fire for some time now. The retail real estate sector has certainly not been left out in the cold, executives from JLL (RECon booth C1001) told us, focusing on the Dallas, Austin and San Antonio markets.
“The Texas retail market is very robust,” says Clay Smith, an executive vice president at the firm, who is the retail market leader for the Dallas region. The Dallas-Fort Worth market in particular is is strengthening. For one thing, when a retailer new to Texas first makes inroads into the state, Dallas is first on the list.
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One retail sector that Smith points to as particularly strong and competitive is the supermarket business. Right now Walmart and regional player H-E-B are vying for the top spot. At the same time, Kroger is building its larger format stores, which average 120,000 square feet, up from its usual 90,000-square-foot prototype, in order to carry more merchandise.
Two specialty players are also coming into the mix, and Texas, specifically Dallas, is where they might have a showdown. While Phoenix-based Sprouts Farmers Market—with two stores in Dallas and upwards of 10 in the market—is looking for more space and is moving east, Greensboro, NC-based Fresh Market—which is mostly in eastern states—is pushing west and wants a Dallas presence. Additionally, Tom Thumb will remain an active player in the grocery industry, due to their presence in the urban core, and their merger with Albertson's will strengthen their market share.
Fast-food and fast-casual restaurants, as well as banks, are also aggressively looking for parcels in what Smith refers to as a “feeding frenzy.” Retail vacancy in Dallas–Fort Worth is now under 5%, half of what it had been, according to a recent JLL report. It's the lowest rate Smith has seen in about eight years and, “owners of well-located centers are seeing full storefronts, rising rents, and tenants cautiously expanding.”
“There has been so little development since 2007 in the market,” Smith says. “It's all full, and our challenge now is to find space for retailers.”
Meanwhile, San Antonio is no slouch, either, when it comes to a strong retail real estate market.
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As is happening in Dallas, Walmart and H-E-B are battling it out for sites in that city, says Todd Wallace, executive vice president and retail market leader for the area, who is based in Austin. In fact, H-E-B is going as far as to buy up land with the intention of blocking potential new grocery stores from going up. But that hasn't stopped the world's largest retailer from getting more deals done in San Antonio than in any other city in Texas, Wallace insists.
During last year's fourth quarter, vacancy rates in the San Antonio area were at about 10% and with the activity that has already transpired in 2014 the rate is set to drop.
So it's getting harder for tenants to find space.
Wallace added, “Class A retail centers are all very close to 100% occupied across San Antonio – even the most sought after retailers are having a very difficult time finding space in premiere shopping centers. In many cases, the tenant representation deals that we are transacting are in spaces that have existing tenants. Landlords are frequently looking to 'upgrade' the tenant mix in their center or building.”
Restaurants, which are experiencing significant growth, especially the fast-food and fast-casual outfits, can't find the spots they want. There is also demand by medical uses and banks in shopping centers as well.
And when it comes to class A product, finding vacant shells is especially challenging, says Ty West, a JLL vice president based in San Antonio.
“San Antonio is a tough market right now to find available core retail space, but there are a number of new projects coming online that will create opportunities for retailers looking to expand,” added West.
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