Since the deal cut by Congress to do nothing on the deficit for another two years, you hear nothing at all about it leading up to the November election. However, it is not that the deficit is shrinking. It is just racing upward less fast. This will accelerate when the recent budget deal expires, and the rise of the deficit again moves up at a rate that is crippling. Right now, the Fed is essentially carrying the US government by keeping rates historically low. If the ten year were once again around a more normal 5%, the interest burden would quite simply consume the budget and make it impossible to provide many of the services people have come to demand.

Instead of dealing with reality, all we hear is income inequality, women are grossly underpaid, we need to raise taxes, etc. So here is some of the reality. Only 58.9% of the population works and earns money. Only about Only 86 million people, 27% of the population, pays taxes. 49.2% get some money from some government entity. 70 million people are on Medicaid with another 16 million projected to join them due to Obamacare. That will mean there will be as many people on Medicaid as pay taxes. Add on another 50 million receiving Medicare going to 73 million. 47 million receive food stamps and the administration runs programs to sign up more people.

All of the objective studies show women overall earn about 96% as much as men and in some fields where women predominate they earn more than men. The average family earns less today in adjusted dollars than they did decades ago. The Fed drove asset prices intentionally so it is true that rich guys with a lot of excess cash to invest in the stock market and distressed real estate made a lot of money over the past 5 years. They did this by just being investors of excess capital-what capitalism is all about. The administration forgets all these guys lost trillions in 2008-9. All they did for many was get even, but to hear the income inequality tirades you would think we all stole the money. If you were like me, I simply invested and thanks to the Fed, I made a lot of money doing that. I took advantage on no one and I could have lost a fortune if things had not been supported by the Fed. For this I get vilified and they now take some of that profit through higher taxes to pass along to all those who do not earn a living, do not pay taxes, It really filled my heart with good will when I recently stood on line in my local supermarket in Manhattan behind a fairly nicely dressed woman who had a lovely manicure and a new I Phone as she handed over her food stamps to the cashier. It was gratifying to see my hard earned money going to a really needy person.

The point of all of this is that we all know we are on a unsustainable race into a brick wall. Only the Fed is keeping us going like all is OK. Is it any wonder Yellen says there will be a slow rise in rates. She would bankrupt the country if she allows rates to rise quickly and to normal levels. We have become an entitlement nation over the past five years and that is getting worse. Why work if you can sit home and get disability even if not disabled, food stamps, rent subsidies, and free medical care. And now DiBlasio wants to add on a variety of other entitlements and raise taxes on the most over taxed people in the US.

What does all this mean to real estate. For now all is great, rates stay low, money is almost free, CMBS is headed back to a race to weak underwriting so over the next two years it will be even easier to get high leverage at pricing that ignores risk. I think we saw that movie in 2007.

It is the longer run that you need to worried about. Rates will rise. The national debt will become unsustainable. The number of tax payers as a percentage of the total population and vs the total takers of funds form the government will become so lopsided that it will create a crisis. It is unclear if owing hard assets or gold or other currencies is better in the long run. I do not have an answer. I simply raise all these issues because if you are a long term holder of hard assets you need to make some long term projections of how this all plays out. Where will taxes be in five years. Or in ten. Where will the US dollar be. Will there be buyers for hard assets with access to well priced debt in 7 or ten years. What will the country's infrastructure look like when there is no money to repair roads, pay cops, provide reliable power, and water.

You may well think this is alarmist or silly. After all we survived the crash and all is good for real estate. My view is you need to get realistic for long term projecting and understand where we are really headed. That 20% or 15% you project may just not be there. I don't pretend to know the answer. I simply raise all these issues to try to get people aware, and out of dreamland.

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Joel Ross

Joel Ross began his career in Wall St as an investment banker in 1965, handling corporate advisory matters for a variety of clients. During the seventies he was CEO of North American operations for a UK based conglomerate, and sat on the parent company board. In 1981, he began his own firm handling leveraged buyouts, investment banking and real estate financing. In 1984 Ross began providing investment banking services and arranging financing for real estate transactions with his own firm, Ross Properties, Inc. In 1993 Ross and a partner, Lexington Mortgage, created the first Wall St hotel CMBS program in conjunction with Nomura. They went on to develop a similar CMBS program for another major Wall St investment bank and for five leading hotel companies. Lexington, in partnership with Mr. Ross established a hotel mortgage bank table funded by an investment bank, and making all CMBS hotel loans on their behalf. In 1999 he formed Citadel Realty Advisors as a successor to Ross Properties Corp., focusing on real estate investment banking in the US, UK and Paris. He has closed over $3.0 billion of financings for office, hotel, retail, land and multifamily projects. Ross is also a founder of Market Street Investors, a brownfield land development company, and has been involved in the acquisition of notes on defaulted loans and various REO assets in conjunction with several major investors. Ross was an adjunct professor in the graduate program at the NYU Hotel School. He is a member of Urban Land Institute and was a member of the leadership of his ULI council. In 1999, he conceived and co-authored with PricewaterhouseCoopers, the Hotel Mortgage Performance Report, a major study of hotel mortgage default rates.