SAN DIEGO—Southern California is a vast and competitive retail real estate market. “Someone once asked Jesse James why he robbed banks, and he said, 'That's where the money is,'” points out Craig Killman of JLL (RECon booth C1001). “The same sentiment holds true for Southern California where the coastal communities, for the most part, are doing very well. If there are any areas that are doing better than others, it's where the money is.”

The high-performing communities he points out include San Diego's North County coastal communities from La Jolla to Carlsbad; and Orange, Los Angeles, Ventura and Santa Barbara counties' coastal communities from Laguna Beach up through Santa Barbara. One factor that catapulted these areas into recovery was when the single-family housing market fell apart during the recession, the multifamily sector took off. People opted to rent in places where they could live, work, play and shop, and use what little public transportation that Southern California has to offer. As the price of fuel continues to rise, there will be more pressure on shorter commutes and telecommuting in general; this is how the next generation wants to work.

E-commerce continues to drive the West Coast real estate market, as retailers continue to offer next-day or same-day delivery service. “It's hard to offer that kind of model if you're not in close proximity to the population, so we're seeing Industrial development surge inland from the major coastal cities. The new distribution centers require more labor and workforce density than previous industrial demands -- and that workforce needs places to live and shop,” says Killman. “It's not quite as glamorous of a story as the coast, but nonetheless it's job creation and it is what's helping the Inland Empire communities, stabilize and grow.”

On the tenant end in Southern California, a merger that could potentially have a big impact on the region is the one between grocers Albertsons and Safeway. If there are several closures, and the combined entity continues to hold onto the space and not allow another grocer to enter a shopping center that could spell trouble for retail real estate landlords. But if landlords gain control of those shells, there are a lot of specialty grocers in the sector that are looking to open new stores.

“As our population in general, becomes more health conscious, specialty grocers will continue to be more and more popular, especially health-food oriented grocers like Whole Foods, Trader Joe's and Sprouts Farmers Market,” Killman observes. “Those retailers all want more space, if a landlord has a 50,000-square-foot Albertsons that closes, and can go ahead and split it in half and do a specialty grocer and another retailer, it's a home run for them.”

Killman also sees opportunity in the closure of apparel chain Coldwater Creek's 360 locations that accounts for 2.2M square feet of real estate. With very little new retail space under construction, closures like this, will make way for expanding chains to enter those vacancies. On another note, the entire apparel world is changing for a more demanding consumer.

“When you talk about fast casual apparel, or microwave clothing as some like to call it, which is H&M, Forever 21, Charming Charlie, those retailers can go from design concept to on the shelf in an incredibly short period of time,” Killman remarks. “The more traditional clothing retailers of the world just can't react that quickly. They're buying in the fall to sell in the winter of the following year. The customer of today, for the most part wants it now. Traditional apparel retailers are going to have to evolve very quickly in order to remain relevant with more nimble competitors, or they're going to be outdated and fade way.”

Restaurants are another segment doing well in Southern California, as they are in other parts of the country. Five years ago about 33% of the deals that Killman saw were restaurant leases, and that number is pushing 50%. Restaurants don't compete with the Internet, and people want a reason to go out, he says. Additionally, there is a large market in his region for fast-casual chains serving healthier fare, such as Urban Plates, Tender Greens and Veggie Grill. Even the wave of new gourmet/specialty pizza players are approaching pizza from a new angle. Fresh Brothers Pizza-Salad-Wings' Fresh Vegetable pizza with a gluten free crust is heavenly, and their performance is telling them that pizza aficionados everywhere are ready for high quality pizza with farm fresh ingredients.

Killman is also seeing growth in theater chains, especially those that provide an experience that is more than just a movie and one that's more difficult to create at home. Some operators are upgrading their concession offerings, replacing typical theatre seats with leather electric recliners and they're adding bars and making a portion of the screens for an adult-only crowd. The theatre industry is healthy, and ticket sales in '14 are up year to date over '13.

“Both investors and occupiers of retail real estate have to be experiential, and highly differentiated, in order to stay relevant,” he says. “If you can't wow today's customer, they are going to take their business to somewhere and to someone who can. If the choice is just to get out of their chair and go to any ho-hum retail environment or to a ho-hum retailer, they'll buy it online if they can. That trend is going to continue. Rick Caruso and Apple have both figured this out, the rest of the retail world won't be very far behind, if they want to survive in this post-recession, demographically shifting world that we live in.”

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